"It's a long shot, but backing off this ledge is the only rational choice."

Free link, where I read, but disappears in about 24 hours or less: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250731190/trumps-tariffs-are-a-no-win-for-americans-heres-what-needs-to-happen-now
Original link, requires membership: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-tariffs-are-a-no-win-for-americans-heres-what-needs-to-happen-now-19f24b03

Trump's tariffs are a no-win for Americans. Here's what needs to happen now.
Provided by Dow Jones Jul 31, 2025

By David Blond

The world will move on without the U.S. at the center, and Americans' living standards will suffer

Ignore the window dressing of these deals. There is no yardstick by which these commitments can be measured, so they are just nice words to pacify the president.

Nothing about the Trump plan for America's future as a major economic power makes any sense. I wonder if the officials who surround him fully understand the damage that is being done. Tariffs will not solve anything, and attacks on American science, universities and programs for supporting critical infrastructure and industries are damaging to America's economic strength going forward. Rejection of wind and solar power and a return to coal amounts to government malpractice.

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Looking for any silver lining is wishful thinking by Wall Street. The truth is that the U.S. market is significant, but not that important if the global trade flows begin to rebalance with less sold across the Atlantic and Pacific and more between countries that are still willing to adhere to the hard-won tariff regimes that had served the global trading system so well for so many years - since the start of the Bretton Woods agreement that set the stage for today's interconnected world.

What needs to happen now

It's a long shot, but backing off this ledge is the only rational choice. If Trump decides to retreat from his trade positions, the administration would also need to call off the ICE raids and offer immigrants, a key part of America's labor force, a path to citizenship or at least permanent work permits while also securing the border. Trump would need to stop attacking the jewels of American education or the funding for needed research that strengthens America's economy. He would recognize that international trade has attracted investment to liquid, secure U.S. financial markets and given Americans the high standard of living they've enjoyed.

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David Blond is an international economist and consultant. He has been quantifying and modeling the global system of trade and industrial development for more than 50 years.