He is maximizing his limited time right now to collect all the wealth and treasures and power possible.

No way. Anyhow, if he's not actually dead, he'll be such a vegetable by then that even the GOP will have to notice.

He won’t be the Republican nominee.

I don’t even expect him to formally declare his candidacy or attempt to remain in office.

He’ll just sell 2028 merch and seek donations to anoint his successor.

There will, of course, be some form of compensation paid for that as well.

Lawrence O'Donnell presented some Trump comments saying he's "read that he can't serve" a 3rd term. At this moment in time, I'm guessing he (or more likely Stephen Miller) is spitballing strategies for some way to "seek" a third term. He has so far illustrated nothing but contempt for the Constitution so the Constitution has no bearing on any decision he makes about running for a third term and there's nothing to stop him...at this moment in time.

If Dems regain control of Congress, the likelihood diminishes considerably because I also think a Dem House majority will impeach him early on. By then, the the GOP will be ready for him to go and a conviction would be a reasonable expectation.

O'Donnell also suggested the 3rd term run rhetoric is purely for distraction and that is certainly believable.

But we're talking about a guy who posts insane rants at 2A on his Spin Social about late night comedians, imposes tariffs on Canada because of a commercial he didn't like, wants the world to pay the U.S. for the privilege of doing business with U.S. companies, tells DOJ to go after people he deems criminals...for simply doing their jobs.

It's a new Trump world everyday...any prediction about any topic is just a guess.

He won’t admit he is in precarious health!

though I do keep my fingers crossed.

But no, he won't get a third term.

And I hope he serves something less than two terms.

Regardless of what they tell us, and in spite of the eyeball test alone not being a gauge of health, he's not known for healthy habits.

this second term will last forever unless someone kills him.

TSF is already proven to be senile and yet the Republicans continue to worship him, insisting that he is "superlative". So we are all insensed about the East Wing being turn down (with no regard for asbestos). Meanwhile, the billionaires he put in charge are tearing apart the economy to suit their needs.

should be 2 separate poll points

"Yeah...we got him to be President but looks like he's starting to fuck up the economy way too much"

He is a tool that will be discarded at the end of this term.

… great benefit for the wealthy. Covid was a great example of that. They won’t kick him to the curb for that.

"Demoralizing defeatist nonsense" to suspect that Trump will do everything and anything he can to stay in power?

Suspecting that Trump will do everything and anything he can to stay in power means that a person therefore thinks Trump is omnipotent, and the states and the people are powerless?

We are in a very serious emergency situation and Trump and the Republicans (and the billionaires for whom they shill) are extremely dangerous and capable of just about anything. Acknowledging that is not "demoralizing defeatist nonsense."

Which is different then asking if he’ll do everything he can to remain in power.

I think that covers the other scenarios you contemplate.

It’s shtick at this point from someone who is a citizen of another country with nothing tangible at stake if they’re wrong.

But declaring, with certainty , and without evidence or even a logical thought process around the actual logistical steps required to accomplish such a scheme, that Trump will successfully seek and serve a third term is absolutely, positively defeatist nonsense.

PS- it is indeed a “push” poll in the sense that I wanted to push people to take a stand and accept or reject the rampant Third Term Trutherism infecting DU lately.

So far, it looks like the state of the reality based community here at DU is just fine.

Yes, with that limitation, who could disagree?

Declaring, with certainty that Trump will successfully seek and serve a third term is unsupportable.

Kind of a leap from that to "rampant Third Term Trutherism" don't you think?

I haven't seen "the rampant Third Term Trutherism infecting DU lately." Without revealing another member's identity, can you give me some examples of comments along those lines that you have seen?

I suppose if you searched DU using “third term” you’d get plenty of results.

Those threads contain lots of evidence-free speculation, with many nodding along unquestioningly.

It’s usually something along the lines of this:

“Trump won’t leave when his term ends”

“SCOTUS will back him up”

“He will declare an emergency and cancel the election”

All supported by simplistic “evidence” such as “the laws don’t apply to him”.

Never even once have I seen anyone explain the step by step process for how these scenarios would unfold, and they also ignore any potential responses by the courts, congress, the military or the people.

The general assertion is that A third term will “just happen” because Trump wills it to be so, and nobody will raise a finger to object, resist or otherwise intervene.

The fact remains that, despite this administration’s lawlessness and corruption, they have only defied a court order once, and restrained their conduct following losses, injunctions etc. from various courts numerous times.

I don’t suggest there is any honor or deference in this administration, but something is limiting their conduct when these rulings are issued.

Thanks.

All of these are possibilities in my opinion:

“Trump won’t leave when his term ends”

“SCOTUS will back him up”

“He will declare an emergency and cancel the election”

Regardless of his disregard for the laws of the nation, Trump must obey the laws of physics, which will do when the new Commander in Chief orders him to be physically removed from the White House (unless you think thousands in the military will commit treason and enable a coup).

SCOTUS will never rule that 2=3, for that would permanently and irreversibly extinguish their power, authority and relevancy. Their loyalty is to their ideology, not to Trump the man.

States run elections- they weren’t canceled during the civil war, or any war, and they won’t be canceled in 2028- Trump doesn’t have the power.

Remember this one absolute truth:

Trump is not omnipotent, and the states and the people are not powerless

We have seen that truth proven repeatedly, despite the daily atrocities committed by this administration.

Thanks for that. We see it differently.

Whether he succeeds or not is anyone’s guess.

Unless he croaks first. Which could also happen.

I think the media should stop asking him about it. That's not to say they can't follow the story and report on it if something occurs in that vein. But he doesn't need to be asked about it. It's more of his usual con game.

... on his health. We know he's unwell... not in the shape he claims. And, his mental health hasn't been good for ages. BUT if he's about like he is now, as in able to speak his regular gibberish and get around for the most part, he will try to remain President.

As you describe the steps Trump will take, make sure to include the potential responses from the courts, the congress, the military and the people.

Reminder:

There are no troops on the streets of Portland or Chicago.

Kilmar Garcia is back on US soil.

What stopped Trump? Why didn’t he jail or assassinate the judges who opposed him, like his BFF Putin does?

... I don't think that's as likely. He could try to declare war and suspend elections. He could claim they were not valid and call for the Presidential election to be recalled/rescheduled. Remain as President for another term... his first thought would be to run as the 2nd term of the 47th President. I do think the US Constitution is clear - but I don't trust the present Supreme Court. I believe we've seen wives succeed term-limited or dead spouses. Probably Nancy Reagan could have done the job, but she was very unpopular. Despite his health, Reagan could have done well in a third run. Of course Hillary Clinton could have won a 3rd Clinton term, but that would mean running against Gore. Obama could nave done well, also, but I don't think Michelle Obama is interested. Melaina is not eligible, but the kids are- or another "stand-in" could run. Then, there is the succession and appointment process... he could run as Speaker of the House, or be appointed into office like Gerald Ford. I don't think laws are a barrier for Crooked Donald, if he wants to remain President. He's already proven that to be true.

... I mean in lower offices. I think we've seen that in lower offices. Wives running after their spouses are term-limited or die. They have been successful, I think. It has not happened at the Presidential level. With women becoming more political active, it's probably going to happen... two terms for someone, and two terms for their spouse. The Third Lady is not a candidate, of course, so another family member would have to try.

You failed to discuss the potential responses from the courts (who, with one exception, he has not defied), the congress, the military and the people.

You seem to have forgotten that elections have been held during every war, including the Civil War, as well as in the aftermath of 9/11.

Imagining something and typing it on the internet doesn’t make that thing plausible, possible or probable.

We agree that the constitution is clear, and even the current corrupt MAGA majority on SCOTUS would not permanently extinguish their power and their relevance by ruling that 2=3.

Their loyalty is to their ideology, not to Trump the man. He was a means to an end, and will be discarded at the end of this term.

If he's in any shape to stand upright and slobber out something marginally like words .... a big if... I would not be at all surprised if they try to run him as VP. Intent being potus steps down or falls out a window and he is back in.

But Jean Carroll has taught us he can be beaten.

And that’s not a legal option anyway, just a Republican fantasy.

SCOTUS is loyal to their ideology, not to Trump the man.

If they were to rule that 2=3, they would be permanently subjugating themselves to Trump and his successors, extinguishing their independent power and authority.

No, he will not.

Can mean different things to different people.

What’s to stop them from ruling that it violates his god given right to run and that it should be “up to the voters”

You underestimate the predicament we are in by an order of magnitude.

That’s just silly.

It’s literally why he’s president right now, they nullified the constitution. We are in a coup bro, all bets are off.

The Colorado case (a unanimous bipartisan ruling) was about the jurisdiction of a state court to disqualify a candidate for federal office, not whether the candidate should be disqualified or not.

The case was never brought in federal court, so we will never know how the court might have ruled on the question of disqualification under the 14th amendment.

Nice try bro, I do admire you quaint but misplaced faith in our institutions. Probably easier to wear rose tinted glasses from afar. Come down to Chicago and see for yourself, these fucking thugs mean business and they are not about to let a relatively recent amendment stop them. the scotus could say that’s not the framers intent and that would be it.

Are you saying liberals on the court wanted to “force Trump back on the ballot”?

The truth is, if states were allowed to disqualify for federal office, then the interpretation of the 14th would be up to 50 individual courts, (which I believe was mentioned in KBJ’s concurrence).

That would have resulted in Biden/Harris being excluded from the ballot in numerous red states.

If SCOTUS ever ruled that 2=3, and that a constitutional amendment itself was unconstitutional, they would instantly be permanently subjugated to Trump, and lose all independent power and authority.

As I said, their loyalty is to their ideology, not to Trump the man.

In the unlikely event they do rule that 2=3 (and nobody has asked them that question as of yet), feel free to create a thread calling me out to proclaim “I told you so!”

When you’re a member of the reality-based community, bro.

True.

And many on the right will make the argument that the 22nd Amendment applies to only to consecutive terms – some red states may put Trump on their ballots in 2028.

Then the courts will get involved as we saw with Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

Trump and his Cult members will certainly continue to talk about a third term to grift and to deflect from Trump’s crimes, corruption, and many failures.

They only ruled the a state court could not disqualify a candidate for federal office.

Why the case was not then taken to federal court, I don’t know.

on trial for insurrection and secured a conviction - nobody was ever going to disqualified from public office on the grounds of being guilty of insurrection without the due process of a criminal trial.

Which is why, regardless of who was AG under Biden, the Roberts court would have made sure the result was exactly the same - no Trump trial before the election.