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moniss

(8,731 posts)
Tue Jan 6, 2026, 09:01 AM Tuesday

When people talk about the oil

on the TV with the talking heads and all they don't really get into what is about to happen from a money standpoint to the Venezuelan people and how it's done. Historically over in the Middle East the oil companies were cutting deals with strongmen for pennies on the dollar compared to what a true rate should have been for that countries share of the resource. Naturally the people saw little benefit.

That changed somewhat in the period after WW2 and into the '60's/'70's when leadership rose in some of those countries that could force a better deal. That's not to say the people were greatly improved it is simply to make the point that the vultures in the resource extraction business, whether it's oil or mining, follow a pattern. They've used it around the world and still today in Africa and elsewhere.

That pattern is to work in conjunction with the government of a country like the US, England, France etc. to prop up an authoritarian regime, many times a military strongman, with weapons and money and then cut a deal to pay royalties for the resources for a tiny fraction of what would be a fair amount. The strongman is always well compensated and kept supplied with weapons, money etc. and he is expected to keep control of the people. The people end up working but not really improving their lives to anywhere near what they could because the rightful share of the money from their resources is never paid and used for their betterment.

So after decades of mineral and oil extraction the people are mired pretty much at a low level. This is what was happening in Venezuela for decades prior to Hugo Chavez and his people rising to power in the early 2000's. Still an authoritarian to a degree he was more Socialist and began enacting reforms for the people and nationalized the oil fields. There was opposition to Chavez politically within Venezuela and I'm not making him out as a saint. I'm simply pointing out in general the system that was and then in the broad sense what began to change for the people. Chavez died and Maduro is the successor but he is not all that competent but he has been having to struggle with heavy US sanctions for many years and fights with the oil companies over their claims of money owed to them for what they claim Venezuela owes them.

The bottom line is the same old imperialist/colonialist pattern is being perpetrated by Crumb the 1st and the oil companies and there will not be a great financial and social benefit to the people from the extraction of their oil. Throughout Central and South America it has been and continues to be corporations and the US government identifying willing right wing strongmen and helping them into power with weapons and money with the expectations that they will "do as we want". Like in El Salvador etc. and the betterment of the people is simply not even remotely in the equation at play by the extraction companies and the US government.

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Vogon_Glory

(10,199 posts)
1. Venezuelan oil might not be a big a prize as Orange Julius and his henchmen like to think
Tue Jan 6, 2026, 09:26 AM
Tuesday

The truth of the matter is that while there is still a lot of oil in Venezuela, it isn't as accessible or cost-effective to drill for it or refine it as the big brains in the current mal-administration like to think. Venezuela's oil infrastructure has deteriorated for decades now and outside of fantasy circles at right-wing political institutes or the irresponsible right-wing media, I don't see that it would be that cost-effective to pump it out. It will cost big bucks (or Euros or whatever) to repair what Chavez and Maduro have allowed to deteriorate and there will need to be a lot of incentive for Big Oil or not-so-big oil field supply companies to repair decades of neglect. Moreover, investing in such repairs might cost more than oil companies are likely to get out of it, particularly with today's oil prices. It might have been if oil went for $100 a barrel back when Buckaroo Bush was in the White House, but today oil is selling for under $60 a barrel and the costs of sinking all that money into Venezuelan oil fields, pipelines, refineries and docks might not be worth it.

I was one of many democrats who thought that invading Iraq was a disaster waiting to happen and that the people who thought it up were criminal fools. I still do, but in hindsight I will give them a very little credit. A very little credit. Buckaroo Bush's posse were oilmen and at least some of them had some idea of petroleum economics. Orange Julius and his retinue, on the other hand, do not. They are not oil men, they do not seem to understand oil economics, and they launched their operation anyway. Both the people of Venezuela and the American people will be paying for this folly for decades to come.

moniss

(8,731 posts)
2. Yes and oftentimes that investment is
Tue Jan 6, 2026, 09:42 AM
Tuesday

used as justification for unfairly low royalty percentages. In other words "Look how much I had to spend to rip you off." Crumb The 1st and his people are talking about reimbursing the oil companies for their costs. Imagine how much of a boondoggle that will be.

Vogon_Glory

(10,199 posts)
5. True, that investment has been used as an excuse, BUT
Wed Jan 7, 2026, 08:14 AM
Wednesday

I don’t think there’s any credible evidence that the Venezuelan oil properties were well managed after Chavez’s nationalization. In fact, I think there’s considerable evidence that they weren’t. Running off petroleum engineers, technicians or geologists doesn’t strike me as signs of good management.

This is not an argument against state ownership or oil producing countries owning their oilfields, pipelines, refineries or shipping terminals. I think that they can be better-managed and while I WON’T heap praise on Saudi Arabia or its society, I will give credit to Saudi Arabia’s ARAMCO, for being much better-run than the hot messes still in place in Venezuela.

moniss

(8,731 posts)
6. This is why I said in my OP that I wasn't making Chavez
Wed Jan 7, 2026, 10:23 AM
Wednesday

out to be a saint. It's simply that he was better than what they had. A lot of the problem with the understanding of what happened to the oil companies when Chavez took control was that it wasn't that they couldn't continue on in Venezuela it's that they didn't want to continue on unless they continued to get an unfair deal. They very much relied on the idea that they might swing Chavez to their side either by bribery or by force. It didn't happen. Also there was a concerted effort by those in the industry to not sell parts, do maintenance etc. which of course didn't help.

The major companies that left thought they could bully as they always had around the world. A good deal of the "unrest" in Venezuela over the last 2 decades has been fomented and supported by our CIA. The propaganda picture always painted in Western media has been that Chavez was a horrible human being and the Venezuelans were living in rags. As usual under Latin American reform there was tremendous push-back from the vested interests internally and externally who wanted their control over land and resources to continue and so they resisted moves that involved land reform and increased social programs for the people. So all of that also had a negative effect on the operation of the oil infrastructure as well.

Here is a link with a brief but broad overview of the situation for the Venezuelan oil industry at that time.

https://factually.co/fact-checks/business/venezuela-chavez-oil-restructuring-impact-on-foreign-jv-d5fe7f

2naSalit

(100,062 posts)
4. Then add in...
Tue Jan 6, 2026, 03:26 PM
Tuesday

Venezuela's recent arguments with Guyana over its recently acknowledged off shore and near shore oil fields and then their rare earth minerals everybody wants... all in tiny Guyana.

That was getting louder and now guess who wants to butt in and take over like the bully he is?

GreatGazoo

(4,482 posts)
3. One of the more interesting analysis I heard (not on TV)
Tue Jan 6, 2026, 09:45 AM
Tuesday

is Venezuela's oil supply is being seized in preparation for the Iran war. 20% of oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz which will be closed by Iran during the war. So how do they prevent a major spike in oil prices? Seize Venezuela which has almost exactly 20% of the potential output of the world.

Oil is too cheap right now, under $60, so if this theory is correct then Venezuelan oil is blockaded now to push WTI above $60 and then will be unleashed during the Iran war to keep WTI under $85 or so.

Cable news never talks about the class dynamics you cite. The intended audience for cable news is the DC beltway. They are almost only concerned with policy and business. They don't do context and history, as you note.

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