General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe US/Israeli attacks on Iran aren't even the most risky to flip Iran to the community of nations.
What one really has to watch for is the Arab States. If the Arab States follow through with their threats to attack Iran, new cans of worms open up.
After the first reprisal attacks, the GCC basically claimed an "article 5" and threatened attacks on Iran.
Persians and Arabs are not friendly... the Persians pre-date Islam by over 1000 years and then there's the Sunni v Shia thing and even the The Battle of Qadisiyyah from 636 AD when the Arabs defeated the Persians...
Regular Iranians might not stand up to fight the US or Israel... but they're more likely to stand up to attacking Arabs.
hoping the Arabs keep their powder dry.
SunSeeker
(58,146 posts)That gold plane and those billions slipped into Jared Kushner's pocket bought them the US military.
OC375
(673 posts)Settle scores?
Save face?
Finish it once and for all?
Reclaim land?
Set up for future opportunities?
Logic doesn't always prevail, or at least, it can require some context to follow.
Lot's of reasons to join a dog pile.
fujiyamasan
(1,531 posts)But we effectively act as a mercenary group for them and Israel, except we dont get paid by either (and in Israels case we pay them).
I dont think the Arab states have to do much. If we want to ensure oil flowing (and Asia is particularly dependent on middle eastern oil), the US military will do most of the dirty work.
If Irans remaining leadership is dumb enough to actually try to step it up with the Saudis, I think SA will start putting their weapons to use. For now its likely deterrence. I have no clue about the other gulf states. I fully expect expect the Houthis to step it up too, so maybe thats the front Saudi Arabia will take on.
This is looking like the Pandoras box most dreaded. It was probably bound to open at some point, but either way every member of this administration will likely sleep with one eye open, because Shiite clerics will be issuing fatwas left and right. These folks dont forget very quickly. Look at Salma. Rushdie. They tried killing him decades after the fatwa was issued.
After Israel took out Nasrallah and Hazbollah it was clear they would settle all scores. The Ayatollha was the biggest. They found a willing henchman in Trump.
sarisataka
(22,437 posts)Have been trying to get the US to eliminate the Iranian regime for decades. Until now Presidents have been too smart to fight someone else's war.
Since we are doing what they wanted all along I doubt they will join the conflict. If they do I would expect it to be like the Soviets joining the fight against Japan in WW2. Attack a practically defeated opponent for strategic political reasons rather than any military purpose
leftstreet
(39,967 posts)"security" meaning the relative tranquility and MONEYMAKING they've enjoyed before Trump set fire to all this. They don't have the military infrastructure and means to do much here
WarGamer
(18,442 posts)the US has lots of "customers" in the Gulf
leftstreet
(39,967 posts)lame54
(39,497 posts)Through Trump
Will bomb for cash