https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cp9vm5ezxz4t

(snip)

Oil back under $100 a barrel - but things could get much worse, warns IEA

03:26

While oil prices have retreated from over $100 a barrel, the cost of crude is still 36% more expensive than it was before the Iran war began on 28 February – and it could get worse, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

IEA executive director Fatih Birol suggests that current prices do not reflect the severity of what is going on in the Middle East.

"April may well be even worse than March, because during the month of March, we have already received cargoes which were loaded well before the crisis started... and during the month of April, nothing is being loaded," he says.

"The longer the disruption is, the more severe the problem becomes."
(snip)

Price gougers is what they are.

There is no right way to handle idiotic supply disruptions other than to price by replacement costs. This is building up into a big crisis soon. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Time-to-Plan-for-Months-of-Oil-Gas-Shortage.html
A contract for immediate this week delivery of a Brent crude blend is over $148, while the futures for that barrel are under $100.

By overcharging for the previous supply, then under-charging during the actual shortage?

It is sort of how car braking goes back through a group of cars and is called the Accordion Effect.

Braking waves, or traffic shockwaves, move backward through a group of cars because each driver reacts to the brake lights of the car ahead after a slight delay, creating a cascading, amplified deceleration. This "accordion effect" (or traffic wave) can turn a minor slowdown into a stop for rearward vehicles.

Remember you buy your gas from a station you pick, the station is more locked into a distribution chain. And they are buying a large amount at once, if the price starts dropping and they have to reduce their prices to somewhat match their competitiors they could face reduced profits or even a loss on the last batch. So in effect these price increases if not actual profiteering are just them leaving a little cushion for the next delivery. Remember they only make a few cents per gallon, most stations either make money from a service garage or an attached convience store. These are ripple effects of this energy being physical and having to be moved around. The oil gets pumped, then it gets transported to a refinery, then sold to a distributor and finally to a petrol station or an oil delivery company. Each of these firms along the way have to preserve cash for future operations, so it is natural for price declines to take longer than increases to hit the pumps. As the declines only begin once stations start to compete on price. I've noticed at different times diffferent brands of gas will be the price leader along Rt 17 in North Jersey, some times it is 7-11, some times Arco and other times Exxon.

It was pricey but at least I know I am okay for the winter (I could manage with just one tank of oil if I am extremely conservative with it).

From all accounts they have a low reserves if 1 billion bbls is "low". They go thru the stuff quickly..
m