Soldier arrested for betting on Maduro raid. Maduro is the one facing drug charges.

and "win" $3 billion on Iran, why should this guy be prosecuted for $400k? If he had won a billion, would they leave him alone?

Trump's going to say that he doesn't even understand what the guy did wrong. He was just investing in and incentivizing his own success, which is also the USA's success!

The soldier's bet drove down the odds, decreasing trump's winnings!

Link to tweet

Huge story.

not tRUMP too?

T and family can bet whatever they want on whatever they want and it's fine. This guy, dumb though he is (of course assuming the charges are true) will get the book thrown at him, and he should.

As Bugs Bunny used to say, What a Maroon.

Normally difficult to prove…but not in this case. He will lose his career and get loved warmly by the feds.

“Using insider information to place bets through a betting service is illegal and commonly charged as wire fraud (18 U.S.C. § 1343) and conspiracy. This activity constitutes a scheme to defraud because it exploits confidential, material nonpublic information (MNPI) to obtain money through deception, using electronic interstate communications (apps, websites)”

Not to mention that if Iran had anyone monitoring polymarket, they could have made adjustments or defensive changes upon seeing the same unusual betting activity.

“According to an indictment unsealed Thursday in the Southern District of New York, Van Dyke was charged with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud and engaging in monetary transactions from unlawful activity.”

He blew that one

The only thing surprising about this is that DOJ prosecuted him.

Insider trading is AOK by them.

But it is on the soldier's part.

You'll see that several people have used insider knowledge without criminal consequences.
In part because the prediction market is not gambling or regulated trading.
Or at least that's the argument. It hasn't been tested.
The case the Marines has would be about revealing national security secrets. Not sure that'll work on it's own.
If as I suspect the Marines do make it about insider trading, that opens a can of worms that Trump's administration might want to quash.

“Using insider information to place bets through a betting service is illegal and commonly charged as wire fraud (18 U.S.C. § 1343) and conspiracy. This activity constitutes a scheme to defraud because it exploits confidential, material nonpublic information (MNPI) to obtain money through deception, using electronic interstate communications (apps, websites)”

Using insider information invalidates the integrity of the system. We see press examples that are theory, but the feds or local gaming states will absolutely go after illegal betting in an ugly way. It’s normally hard to prove, so if the feds have the evidence to go after it…you’re toast.

That is the argument the Marines will have to deal with.

Looks like that is what they’ll be arguing.

Grifters found a crack in the law to exploit. Our legislators are too old to keep up.
I think a new agency that keeps an eye on current event and tech that can give a heads up to congress.