Are We Still at War?
I mean, it feels like the answer is: Yes, forever? I know that Donald Trump has said that the war is actually over in order to avoid Congress having to approve further military action. But he has also now settled on a permanent blockade to squeeze the Iranians into surrender, and naval blockades are acts of war. It’s mass collective punishment the likes of which we’ve seen in Gaza and Cuba.

Though Trump has said this is “more effective than bombing,” it’s unlikely to work.

In the abstract, it’s not too difficult to think up a bargain that both America and Iran might accept to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. would like it open, and Iran would like American sanctions to be removed, for instance.

A basic requirement for any bargain, however, is a baseline of trust. And it’s hard to imagine a less trustworthy person than Donald Trump. Hence the latest acronym on Wall Street: NACHO, or Not a Chance Hormuz Opens.

Just consider some history. Trump’s business career in real estate and casinos eventually foundered in part because he compulsively stiffed contractors and refused to pay for things he had ordered. When NBC producers came in to set up The Apprentice, they had to bring in outside vendors to build a set in Trump Tower because he had been blackballed by every local company. Once bitten, twice shy, as the saying goes.