The AI companies, other than the chip makers and some data center builders, are unlikely to see any profits. Ever.

Please enlighten me further.

He is shredding AI on his blog and YouTube.

1) it is not intelligent. Current AI is a really good search engine, but it is not intelligent. It is not thinking. This limits its productive use.

2) it is insanely expensive to run. The amount of compute power needed to run a simple “dialogue” with the AI engine can eat up a monthly subscription in about an hour, depending on the complexity.

3) The entire supply chain is based on absurdly huge demand projections that would make AI 2-3x the current software industry. Why would people buy that much given its technological limitations?

4) Nvidia and others are stuffing their supply chains. They have already shipped more GPU’s then could be installed this year.

5) The data centers (think Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, Oracle) are buying the chips/GPUs, and many data centers have been announced but haven’t been started. A data center’s profitability is based on massive government subsidies, and there has been a bipartisan revolt against them by people. There needs to be a lot more data centers for AI to achieve profitability, and building has slowed down.

6) Circular deals - GPU buying has slowed, so Nvidia and others are paying OpenAI and Anthropic to buy Nvidia chips by buying stock in OpenAI and Anthropic. Amazon and Microsoft are doing similar with their data centers. This is a really bad sign, because it points out that the AI software companies are nowhere close to cash flow positive, but VCs are not willing to fill the breach. The vast majority of investors funding AI are able to treat that investment as revenue, thereby inflating their own stock price.

This is about a third of the problems with AI economics.

If any part of this slows down, the entire ecosystem, which has been carrying the stock market since 2022, starts to have serious problems.

Zitron is the most concise in his analysis and most frequent speaker, but there are many others raising concerns. Mark Cuban, Jamie Dimon, others.

Which is exactly why on the advice of a friend in the business I bought 1000 shares of Nvidia at the beginning of 2023 for a little over $14,000. As of today’s statement from Edward Jones, it’s worth a little over $224,000. I should mention that includes at least one split. The chipmakers are where the money is.

Since I was already traveling like a whirlwind for my job, I hardly paid any attention to any such advice from a broker. But this one time I did. I bought 1000 shares of Texas Instruments at $54. In the first eight years, it split two-for-one three times, so now I had eight thousand shares. It went up to over $75, but during the Cheney-Bush recession of 2008, it went down to $20. I asked the (now new) broker if I shouldn’t buy more? She said no, too many eggs in one basket. Great advice THAT was, right? It’s now over $300. At least I kept the rest. Like I said, I paid little attention to this game. I pay even less now. There seems little sense in selling for a big profit when well over half of it will be gobbled up by two different governments. I’m better off leaving it to my NY-based daughter, who would only be taxed once on it. My Germany-based daughter has made so much money already that she doesn’t want anything from me anyway (she, or her kids, will get some despite that), since she has probably already made more than I ever will.

Last edited Wed Jun 3, 2026, 11:46 PM - Edit history (1)

It’s been fun watching it grow. I don’t plan on touching it. I have a tendency to just hold on when it comes to the stocks part of my portfolio. The market goes up. The market comes down. The market goes back up.

I don’t even know the German tax rate for capital gains, or even if they have such a category. Way back when, such gains were labeled “speculative gains” and completely exempt from taxation in Germany. At the onset of the war-damaged Federal Republic, I guess this made sense, as the government was desperate to encourage the population to invest. Now that investing in the stock market here is almost as routine as it is in the States, the government has decided, “hey, we want some of that!” But I haven’t bought or sold any stock since I became a full-time German resident, so I haven’t bothered to find out. Outside of our two yearly trips to the USA together, we really don’t live an opulent life, so we still live within our means despite my 73% income tax (between Germany and the USA).

If circumstances change, and I should need to sell some stock, I guess I’ll find out quickly what the effect would be.

https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/germany/individual/income-determination

snip

Capital gains from financial investments (e.g. sale of shares) are subject to a flat tax rate of 25% plus 5.5% solidarity surcharge (in total 26.375%, plus church tax if applicable), which is generally withheld at source automatically upon distribution of the gains. Related expenses cannot be deducted. Capital gains qualify for the 'investor's allowance' of EUR 1,000 per taxpayer and year for the total of all financial investment income. This amount is doubled in the case of married taxpayers filing jointly. Special rules apply on the taxation of capital gains from the sale of a significant interest in a corporation (1% or more).

Special partial tax exemptions apply on capital gains from the sale of mutual funds units, depending on the nature of the fund.

Other capital gains are taxable in Germany at individual progressive rates only if the sale is within one year (for movable assets) or ten years (for real property) after the purchase date. Since 2024, these capital gains are only taxable if the profit exceeds EUR 1,000 (previously EUR 600) per year in total. Further tax relief may be applicable under specific conditions if the property was used for private purposes.

I haven’t had a sale of anything like that recently. I wonder how the Germans would treat gains on investments bought, held, sold and taxed in the USA by a US citizen resident in Germany? Germany, like almost every nation on earth, recognizes residence-based taxation, where the USA does not. So if I were to sell some block of shares, like the Texas Instruments stock I mentioned earlier, then presumably, after the Americans come for their 20%, the Germans will be standing in line for their 26.375% as well.

There was one instance of a fluke investment here in EU-land where I made some money on a purely speculative purchase, but this was sold in 2023. I ran it by the Germans, and they—uncharacteristically—said, good for you, it’s all yours. Well, since I’m a US citizen, no, it was’t. I still had to pay 31.8% on the gain back in the USA. Even so, what was left over paid my estimated tax bills for two full quarters here in Germany, so it wasn’t a totally useless exercise.

But at least then people would've caught on that "democratic socialism" revolution means regulated capitalism, same as liberal Democratic policies (FDR/LBJ) and there isn't any ideological difference except for strategy. There could've been unity and progress.

Of course, no one has to love Bernie. But I don’t have to like the centrist direction of the party, either.

and I can't practice my profession. And if there aren't any more artists because who can compete?
They have to stop the theft.

All the buggy whip factories are still out of business.

...new orders are gonna come in any day now!!

The President said we're the hottest country on the planet!!

New business is pouring in!!! Prices down 6, 7, 800 PERCENT!!

is not the same as replacing art made by humans with art made by machines. Machines which cannot make art without stealing from past and current human artists.

I'm speaking for artists but it's not the only field where human input and human activity should not be eliminated.
I support Bernie's idea; but it only addresses part of the problem. It's not just about the money. It's about what kind of world we want to live in.

Every art form is built on the shoulders of what came before it. Artists who are going to thrive and survive are ones who are gonna figure out ways to use AI in producing their art. It’s not going away, no matter how much you wish it would.

Innovation is an actual thing. Intellectual property is an actual thing.

I don't think AI should go away, but I think if they are going to steal all of human knowledge to train AI, there should be a dividend paid to humans for their contributions to that. There are nine billion people on this planet and they didn't vote for six tech trillionaires to make AGI targeted for job replacement to remove all of their labour bargaining and political power and create permanent tech feudalism.

Those same six people put the odds of AGI ending humanity at 10-50%. Nobody wants that and nobody agreed to it. We need to be regulating the shit out of AI and making an actual plan for what comes next as we transition to a post-scarcity society. Nothing else that we are doing right now is an important as that.

for what we are facing, and why we have to do something about it.

We are worried that Trump wants to be a king. But he is old, demented, and will die. Hopefully his cult will die with him. Hopefull democracy will not die first.
But the oligarchs who are using him to get their way, who are not even on the ballot, want an iron lock on everybody's future. Because their greed and sense of entitlement is unlimited. Who has that much wealth and yearns for more at any cost, unable to conceive of the joy that could come from using their power to do good in the world?

I used to think the old fantasies like Lord of the Rings, The High King, Star Wars, etc. with their Dark Lords was an exxageration. I truly didn't believe such evil existed. I have changed my mind.

I would welcome that at some point.

is a beautiful thing. But there are limits. There is copyright and there is plagiarism. An artist can sell their rights, or not. They actually get royalties for other people using their art as well as their name on any reproduction. There is a period of time before something is in the public domain.

With AI there are no limits, and the oligarchs usurping ownership couldn't draw a stick figure or have a creative thought. How many, and what kinds of artists will be left with a dozen people owning marketable art? What kind of world will that give us?

Imagine a world where Trump doesn't have any trouble getting acts for his birthday party because the artists are spawned by machines instead of the creativity that tends to go hand in hand with a human conscience?

i'm not saying that AI can't be a tool in art that is actually creative. But I don't see anyone drawing any kind of line. If we don't protect our artists, there won't be any, at least as we have known them. Laissez-faire never worked and it won't work here.

😊

That's kind of the point.

AI is probably one of the most absurd investment bubbles ever created.

Andrew Yang, a former Democratic presidential candidate, proposed a universal basic income of $1,000 per month

OMGAWD, I feel a movement!!!!? And I totally,have forgotten about Andrew Wang

Seriously…love both these men. How do we get them on the 2028 ticket????

The exploratory committee for the Republican ticket of Donald Trump, Jr. and Eric Trump (otherwise known as “Trump and Gump 2028” ) would surely be willing to back such run with a few dozen million in secret PAC money. Anything if it might split the Democratic vote in a year when we should otherwise have a cakewalk to (whatever is left of) the White House.

At least he has some clue about AI being important. His take is pathetic, but at least he is saying something.

Independents become spoilers unless they run as Democrats, which is why they were allowed to run as Democrats by the DNC. Of course this is fictional and neither will run. People are having fun with this, so keep it fun instead of digging up old fights.

...every bit of the attention it merits.

Seriously, though, I'll try to address this in the evening or on the weekend. It's worth discussing, and those times seem to have a larger readership.

are going to be replaced by automation and robots, do not go looking for a job that
could be replaced by automation and robots, look for a job fixing the automation and
robots. With all the speculation of no need for humans to work because AI is going to
replace you; then why do I need to live since it would appear I am no longer needed?
The longer I live, the more I think that these assholes that think that way are people
that really need to be locked up someplace where they cannot be a threat to mankind.

decide what we will be doing to earn a living having been replaced by machines?

All the income will go to the owners of the AGI technology and machinery. They will decide how much to dole out and to whom.
And how we will spend our time and what will be our purpose.

I'm hoping AGI never actually happens. There have been lots of futuristic predictions that never came true.
But just in case, we need to declare that our whole civilization is not available for sale (or to steal).
We sure as hell shouldn't be financing it with our tax dollars.

To make sure everyone lives without fear of homelessness, hunger or poverty ever again in this country.

40 plus years to prepare which wasn't done. This from Alan Watts has been the plan so far.

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