Oil shortages are coming unless a miracle deal is accomplished

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/04/oil-price-spike-white-house-hormuz-00949435

The oil markets have been sensitive to comments from President Donald Trump and retreated last week after he said that a peace deal with Tehran was near that would return shipping traffic to prewar levels. But his remarks Wednesday that the U.S. blockade of the Hormuz could last until Labor Day have raised questions about whether oil tanker traffic out of the Middle East will approach anything near normal levels this summer.

Drained storage tanks are an “iceberg under the water,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said during a Council on Foreign Relations event Wednesday.

“You may not see immediately on the horizon the actual economic challenges that will be coming, because you look at the flat price and you say, ‘OK, we can muddle through this and Iran will come to terms eventually,’” Croft said. “But if we get in a situation where we have this strait effectively closed, or the strait status quo, and we’re sitting in September or October, then you’re going to be looking at industrial shortages.”