Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

SamuelTheThird

(1,598 posts)
Mon Jun 29, 2026, 02:13 AM Jun 29

Central Bankers warn AI Bubble is similiar to conditions before the Great Depression

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/06/28/ai-boom-risks-global-financial-crash-central-bankers-warn/

The BIS, known as the bank for central banks, said there was growing “peril” in financial markets from the complex web of financial ties between AI giants, shadow banks and data centre builders unravelling.

“Financial stability could ... be at risk in the event of an AI bust,” the BIS said. “Should hyperscalers slow or halt the aggressive pace of capex deployment, many borrowers across the supply chain could struggle to replace lost revenue and service their debt.
----
The BIS warning is one of the strongest yet on risks lurking in the AI boom. The Bank of England warned in December that share prices were now the “most stretched” they had been since the 2008 crisis.
---
The bank noted there were parallels between the AI infrastructure surge and the dotcom boom, as well as similarities with the British railway mania of the 1840s or the “roaring 20s” before the Great Depression.
21 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Central Bankers warn AI Bubble is similiar to conditions before the Great Depression (Original Post) SamuelTheThird Jun 29 OP
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. oasis Jun 29 #1
So I guess the coming oil crunch will have nothing to do with it... JCMach1 Jun 29 #2
The 2007-08 crash was immediate preceded by $120+ prices per barrel of oil AZJonnie Jun 29 #3
It is rarely so simple as one thing no matter what the MSM JCMach1 Jun 29 #4
Big tech was causing serious financial instability... paleotn Jun 29 #9
Th JCMach1 Jun 29 #12
Krugman compares it to the tech bubble: tremendous over-valuation of companies that are making no profits. Martin68 Jun 29 #5
It's worse than the tech bubble SamuelTheThird Jun 29 #14
Yes. LudwigPastorius Jun 29 #15
Good points. Krugman also pointed out those facts. Martin68 Jun 29 #17
It's not about the technology at this point, it's down to just a giant grift and cash grab ToxMarz Jun 29 #6
Exhibit A: f-eloon cashing out not fooled Jun 29 #7
Perhaps, but many don't know. paleotn Jun 29 #11
I have been saying for some time that conditions are very similar to the period just before the Great Depression. flashman13 Jun 29 #8
Not to worry. We got the best president ever, running the country unlike before the Great Depression. People are 3Hotdogs Jun 29 #18
Not a secret. Was reported on before the 2024 election. Blue Full Moon Jun 29 #10
Yeah, but look who is saying it now SamuelTheThird Jun 29 #13
It's the dot com bubble all over again. CaptainTruth Jun 29 #16
It could be worse Renew Deal Jun 29 #19
I fear it's going to be worse. Initech Jun 30 #20
Me too.... CaptainTruth Jun 30 #21

JCMach1

(29,286 posts)
2. So I guess the coming oil crunch will have nothing to do with it...
Mon Jun 29, 2026, 05:57 AM
Jun 29

I smell some finger pointing.

AZJonnie

(4,270 posts)
3. The 2007-08 crash was immediate preceded by $120+ prices per barrel of oil
Mon Jun 29, 2026, 06:03 AM
Jun 29

Nothing *that* bad seems imminent, but it's worth noting the precedent IMHO.

JCMach1

(29,286 posts)
4. It is rarely so simple as one thing no matter what the MSM
Mon Jun 29, 2026, 09:13 AM
Jun 29

Wants us to believe. Plus they would rather have the sheep blame big tech rather than the oligarchy's oil war.

paleotn

(23,229 posts)
9. Big tech was causing serious financial instability...
Mon Jun 29, 2026, 11:56 AM
Jun 29

back in 2025 when we were in the midst of an oil glut and gas was under $3. Borrowing a ton of money on ephemeral hype and fever dreams tends to do that. When they can't service the debt because "build it and they will come" is a grossly irresponsible business plan, the cascade of defaults spirals. 2007 / 2008 on steroids.

Martin68

(28,401 posts)
5. Krugman compares it to the tech bubble: tremendous over-valuation of companies that are making no profits.
Mon Jun 29, 2026, 09:47 AM
Jun 29

SamuelTheThird

(1,598 posts)
14. It's worse than the tech bubble
Mon Jun 29, 2026, 12:43 PM
Jun 29

It's a larger percentage of the market. And the tech bubble most strongly impacted smaller companies, not the ones propping things up.

ToxMarz

(3,217 posts)
6. It's not about the technology at this point, it's down to just a giant grift and cash grab
Mon Jun 29, 2026, 11:34 AM
Jun 29

a dangerous game of musical chairs. That it's going to crash isn't the concern, it's to be the last man standing holding the cash.

not fooled

(6,830 posts)
7. Exhibit A: f-eloon cashing out
Mon Jun 29, 2026, 11:42 AM
Jun 29

when he did, after grifting his AI company onto SpaceXplosion.

He knows what's coming. All of the tech psychos know.


paleotn

(23,229 posts)
11. Perhaps, but many don't know.
Mon Jun 29, 2026, 12:10 PM
Jun 29

They actually believe their own garbage. Just because someone finds themselves rich and in charge of some company, or even president of the US for that matter, doesn't mean they're intelligent and have any rational idea what they're doing. No grand scheme or even an exit strategy. Musk for instance is about as talented as the average 13 year old hyped up on sugar and energy drinks in mom's basement. They may think they're "masters of the universe" and our vapid media may fawn on them, but in reality, they're mediocre. Fortune simply smiled on them for no apparent reason. She does that from time to time.

In my mind, those are the most dangerous people on earth. They have to the tools to do great damage, but not the good sense to even protect themselves from the fall out. That's why financiers and business types throwing themselves out of windows during a panic isn't all that uncommon.

flashman13

(2,669 posts)
8. I have been saying for some time that conditions are very similar to the period just before the Great Depression.
Mon Jun 29, 2026, 11:49 AM
Jun 29

If you are interested, I highly recommend John Kenneth Galbraith's book, The Great Crash.

The AI industry is a giant incestuous money merry-go-round very similar to the stock holding companies of the 1920s. Then you had this multi-layered situation of holding companies whose only assets were stocks in other holding companies that owned other holding companies. All of this was financed on margin loans. When the actual operating company's stock went down in value, the margin calls went out and the whole mess unraveled in hours. Now it is chip companies that are financing data centers that return the money by buying chips. On paper it looks like they are making money even though paying customers don't provide enough income to pay the light bill.

3Hotdogs

(15,814 posts)
18. Not to worry. We got the best president ever, running the country unlike before the Great Depression. People are
Mon Jun 29, 2026, 11:14 PM
Jun 29

always telling him "Sir, I'm amazed about how smart you are and about all the stuff you know stuff about."

So don't worry. Everything will be good. This is the best economy anybody has ever seen and people will be amazed when they see how much even better it's gonna be.

Renew Deal

(85,514 posts)
19. It could be worse
Mon Jun 29, 2026, 11:18 PM
Jun 29

The number of people with 401K's is higher than 2000. AI is carrying the stock market more than tech was back then. Many of the safety levers in the economy have already been used. It could be a much bigger crash.

Initech

(109,779 posts)
20. I fear it's going to be worse.
Tue Jun 30, 2026, 12:33 PM
Jun 30

In the dot com bubble, people could at least afford to buy PCs. Can't say the same these days.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Central Bankers warn AI B...