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SamuelTheThird

(1,612 posts)
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 09:50 AM Tuesday

Four BILLION people could die by 2050 due to climate change

This staggering news went under the radar. This is not some fly-by-night group stating this.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/16/economic-growth-could-fall-50-over-20-years-from-climate-shocks-say-actuaries

Without urgent action to accelerate decarbonisation, remove carbon from the atmosphere and repair nature, the plausible worst-case hit to global economies would be 50% in the two decades before 2090, the IFoA report said.

At 3C or more of heating by 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states (with resulting rapid, enduring, and significant loss of capital), and extinction events.

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Four BILLION people could die by 2050 due to climate change (Original Post) SamuelTheThird Tuesday OP
The Blue Whale very well might go extinct because their food called krill needs cold water and the Botany Tuesday #1
+1 dalton99a Tuesday #7
In 1856 and in Germany in 1862 Botany Tuesday #9
thats why i keep supplies in my attic. rampartd Tuesday #11
Most of the human population lives on coast lines orthoclad Tuesday #30
Maybe the problem will go away if we ignore it harder? -misanthroptimist Tuesday #2
Its more likely the problem will be self-correcting.. Volaris Tuesday #4
We are lousy stewards of this planet. Unfortunately a lot of those who are responsible will not be here OGBuzz Tuesday #3
More like canetoad Tuesday #17
Mother nature will take care of the problem eventually. OGBuzz Tuesday #35
I fear the world will respond with authoritarianism Johnny2X2X Tuesday #5
Hunger is a powerful motivator. OGBuzz Tuesday #36
History shows that is highly likely misanthrope Tuesday #45
It is the natural consequence of how we treat our planet. The GPV Tuesday #6
What can you expect from a species Stacey Grove Tuesday #8
4 billion people could die by 2050 due to old age. rampartd Tuesday #10
Pretty sure they weren't talking about deaths from old age. AloeVera Tuesday #12
Given the current death rate, only 1.5 billion would die of natural causes. Another Jackalope Tuesday #14
Why would they take rhe death rate into account when calculating AloeVera Tuesday #20
Fair enough. I have no problem with an estimate of 4 billion deaths by then Another Jackalope Tuesday #34
You know who I bet won't be one of the 4 billion? BannonsLiver Tuesday #13
Probably right SamuelTheThird Tuesday #16
Awww there there. BannonsLiver Tuesday #19
Youre kicking the thread, so good SamuelTheThird Tuesday #21
Post removed Post removed Tuesday #22
Speaking of SamuelTheThird Tuesday #23
That's cool. When do you think Taylor will release a new album? BannonsLiver Tuesday #24
When do you think people wil stop worshipping billionaires? SamuelTheThird Tuesday #25
Two weeks? BannonsLiver Tuesday #26
Have Travis and she considering having kids? mr715 Tuesday #28
No realistic plan in place to avoid this scenario Another Jackalope Tuesday #15
That's a shame. n/t flvegan Tuesday #18
I was born in 1947 PCB66 Tuesday #27
Climate change is solvable. mr715 Tuesday #29
We control nature??? SamuelTheThird Tuesday #31
I don't particularly like the idea of orbital mirrors mr715 Tuesday #32
It's a global issue TheProle Tuesday #33
Historically USA is the worst polluter in human history. nt miyazaki Tuesday #37
That is true, but mostly useful for finger-pointing (have at it) TheProle Tuesday #38
Per capita isn't any prettier, along with being the second worse polluter atm. miyazaki Tuesday #39
What I did was point out current conditions TheProle Tuesday #40
US has been then greatest polluter for 80% of the last century. miyazaki Tuesday #41
They'll have to do a great deal more to have an impact Kaleva Tuesday #44
By 2100 half the population will be dead and the survivors speaking Chinese. miyazaki Tuesday #46
China produces about as much greenhouse gases Kaleva Tuesday #43
Ask them if they care. They do, but they'll just point at whats already miyazaki Tuesday #47
The planet won't miss them... WarGamer Tuesday #42

Botany

(78,442 posts)
1. The Blue Whale very well might go extinct because their food called krill needs cold water and the
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 09:54 AM
Tuesday

City of New Orleans is gonna go under water.

Botany

(78,442 posts)
9. In 1856 and in Germany in 1862
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 10:33 AM
Tuesday

Last edited Wed Jul 8, 2026, 06:29 AM - Edit history (2)

They ran experiments that showed the more CO 2 you had in a body of gas the more heat that
body of gas would hold. That fact has never been disproven the fossil fuel industries have spent
billions to make millions of Americans believe that is not true.




orthoclad

(5,393 posts)
30. Most of the human population lives on coast lines
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 05:31 PM
Tuesday

We will see simultaneous massive migration and massive death.

NOTHING is more important, but we're bound up in the news cycle of the rodeo clown.

Our highly-dependent civ is not designed for resilience, it's designed for quick profit. Supply lines will break down, including food, medicine, and fuel.

Learn to garden. Potatoes have a high yield of calories per square meter. Collect rainwater. Solar panels. I planted black locust to burn for fuel. It grows fast, coppices well, and yields anthracite-like heat in a wood stove. I called it "planting my solar power".

If you're young, move to a higher altitude. Years ago I read that seas will rise by hundreds of feet if all the ice melts. It's happened before: the North Sea was land when the Ice Age was on. I haven't checked recent calculations. Remember: it's not how far you are from a coast, it's how high you are.

I reminded people of that before a storm surge and got them to move valuables higher. They thought because they were hundreds of yards from the water they were ok. They weren't. I'm glad I got that word out. The flood reached them, but they were prepared.

That was almost 20 years ago. It's worse now.

We've wasted decades of planning and organization. Jimmy Carter put solar panels on the White House - we should have begun then. The destructiveness is in the RATE of change; we lost our chance to slow the impacts down by moving to higher ground systematically and making other prep. This is why I went into massive shock for T2.0: that scuttled our last slim chance to prevent and cope. I had to hibernate until I could cope again.

Every minute we spend now preparing for a drastic rate of change will pay off tenfold or more. But if we wait until our feet are wet while our hair is burning...

Volaris

(11,877 posts)
4. Its more likely the problem will be self-correcting..
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 10:15 AM
Tuesday

4 billion dead in less than a century, will put a crimp on the demand side of the fossil fuel equation that's for damn sure.
Not pretty for any of us, but the environment and the planet, WILL find a way to outlive this problem we have created...it doesn't much care if we're still there on the other side or not.

OGBuzz

(1,023 posts)
3. We are lousy stewards of this planet. Unfortunately a lot of those who are responsible will not be here
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 10:05 AM
Tuesday

to reap the "rewards" of their actions or inactions.

Johnny2X2X

(24,637 posts)
5. I fear the world will respond with authoritarianism
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 10:15 AM
Tuesday

The upheaval and turmoil will give authoritarians issues to run on like immigration.

Mass migration because of climate change is already occurring and it's almost never discussed as such. In the US, much of the immigration we've seen at the Southern border is partially due to climate change. Subsistence farming in the mountains of Central and South America has become rarer because climate change has shutdown some systems that brought nutrients to those regions. This prompted millions of people to leave small towns and head to the cities looking for work thus taxing the infrastructure in those cities and overcrowding them leading to higher crime and gangs that families flee by heading North. We're seeing the same thing in Europe. It's not going to slow down.

misanthrope

(9,688 posts)
45. History shows that is highly likely
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 09:36 PM
Tuesday

Peace thrives when there is plentitude and scarcity brings war.

GPV

(73,513 posts)
6. It is the natural consequence of how we treat our planet. The
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 10:19 AM
Tuesday

bad part is that many of those people will be from national that didn't contribute much or at all to the situation.

rampartd

(5,893 posts)
10. 4 billion people could die by 2050 due to old age.
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 10:41 AM
Tuesday

or from the unvaccinated childhood diseases.

the less populated earth should be a very nice place for the survivors.

i plan to stay in new orleans until the gulf of mexico reaches my door step.

Another Jackalope

(234 posts)
14. Given the current death rate, only 1.5 billion would die of natural causes.
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 11:28 AM
Tuesday

The other 2.5 billion would be what are called "excess deaths" over and above the average expected number.
The birth rate will plunge as well, so there won't be as many replacement births.

It's going to be an "interesting" couple of decades.

AloeVera

(4,778 posts)
20. Why would they take rhe death rate into account when calculating
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 04:39 PM
Tuesday

...the impact of climate change?

No, the 4 billion is strictly the impact imo.

I think about the sweet little 4-year old in my family and I just want to cry. The world we are leaving him won't be interesting, it will be unbearably horrifying and sad. Imo.

Another Jackalope

(234 posts)
34. Fair enough. I have no problem with an estimate of 4 billion deaths by then
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 06:58 PM
Tuesday

I'm expecting a global population reduction of well over 95% when all is said and done. I think that our numbers will stabilize at around 50 million eventually - not that I'll be around for more than the next 20 years...

SamuelTheThird

(1,612 posts)
16. Probably right
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 04:24 PM
Tuesday

Ultra wealthy can and do build bunkers

But if your reaction to billions potentially dying is to crack a joke, I don't know what to tell you.

SamuelTheThird

(1,612 posts)
21. Youre kicking the thread, so good
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 04:39 PM
Tuesday

You could contribute to the topic in some way, maybe?

What are your thoughts on geo-engineering?

Response to SamuelTheThird (Reply #21)

SamuelTheThird

(1,612 posts)
23. Speaking of
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 04:51 PM
Tuesday

And her CO2 emissions have been considerably more since this was posted

https://carbonmarketwatch.org/2024/02/13/taylor-swift-and-the-top-polluters-department/

Aviation represents 2.5% of the world’s carbon emissions (and likely much more in non-carbon emissions) yet only 1% of the world’s population are responsible for about 50% of all aviation emissions. Moreover, private planes are up to 14 times more polluting, per individual, than commercial planes and 50 times more polluting than trains, according to reporting by Transport and the Environment.


mr715

(5,101 posts)
28. Have Travis and she considering having kids?
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 05:10 PM
Tuesday

I know they both have important careers controlling global politics, but I'd be interested in hearing the gossip.

Another Jackalope

(234 posts)
15. No realistic plan in place to avoid this scenario
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 12:06 PM
Tuesday
Sandy Trust, the lead author of the report, said there was no realistic plan in place to avoid this scenario.

He said economic predictions, which estimate that damages from global heating would be as low as 2% of global economic production for a 3C rise in global average surface temperature, were inaccurate and were blinding political leaders to the risks of their policies.

The climate risk assessments being used by financial institutions, politicians and civil servants to assess the economic effects of global heating were wrong, the report said, because they ignored the expected severe effects of climate change such as tipping points, sea temperature rises, migration and conflict as a result of global heating.

“[They] do not recognise there is a risk of ruin. They are precisely wrong, rather than being roughly right,” the report said.

There has never been a realistic plan to avoid this scenario. All talk otherwise is simply whistling past the graveyard. Don't look up.

Estamos tan jodidos.

PCB66

(238 posts)
27. I was born in 1947
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 05:08 PM
Tuesday

My goal is to make it to 2050.

If so I will be one of the four billion to die.

mr715

(5,101 posts)
29. Climate change is solvable.
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 05:12 PM
Tuesday

There is a price point where using energy to fix carbon and bury it at the bottom of the sea will be essential.

Climate change COULD kill a lot of people, but it won't kill as many as it could because we are living in the Anthropocene and we control nature, and economics moves mountains.

SamuelTheThird

(1,612 posts)
31. We control nature???
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 05:33 PM
Tuesday

We could mitigate climate change with massive change, but scaling up carbon sequestration is something climate scientists have discussed- and it's extraordinarily difficult.

The only thing that MIGHT work is aerosol geoengineering. And that has a whole host of problems and would be a tremendous gamble.

TheProle

(4,250 posts)
33. It's a global issue
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 06:01 PM
Tuesday

and requires global cooperation and coordination. Trump and republicans, without a doubt, lack the foresight, intelligence and political will to be a good faith partner, so we need Democrats in control of congress and the White House and strong public pressure to act.

But the elephant in the room (though absent from this thread) is the fact that China contributes over a third of all CO2 pumped into the atmosphere and contributes more than the US and India combined.

Even if the US did everything as correctly and timely as humanly possible, China is and will remain a major stumbling block to the reversal of climate change dangers.

TheProle

(4,250 posts)
38. That is true, but mostly useful for finger-pointing (have at it)
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 07:37 PM
Tuesday

But action in the here and now has to be taken against what is happening in the here and now. And China is pumping out more than twice as much as the US.

miyazaki

(2,732 posts)
39. Per capita isn't any prettier, along with being the second worse polluter atm.
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 07:41 PM
Tuesday

You pointed first.

TheProle

(4,250 posts)
40. What I did was point out current conditions
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 08:16 PM
Tuesday

If there is a call for the US to admit historical culpability, I will be all for the US taking accountability.

If there is to be substantive action, we’ll need to recognize and mitigate what’s happening now. And nothing substantive can be done with cooperation of the worst offender.

miyazaki

(2,732 posts)
41. US has been then greatest polluter for 80% of the last century.
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 08:52 PM
Tuesday

That's some terrible context to have to point out.

Ironically, China in it's current position, and who conveniently makes a bulk of the worlds products, is probably doing more now than we are in this dilemma.

Kaleva

(40,516 posts)
44. They'll have to do a great deal more to have an impact
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 09:15 PM
Tuesday

At their current rate, China’s cumulative contribution to greenhouse gas emissions since 1850 will match the US’s by 2100.

Kaleva

(40,516 posts)
43. China produces about as much greenhouse gases
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 09:12 PM
Tuesday

as all the other industrialized nations combined and that include the US

miyazaki

(2,732 posts)
47. Ask them if they care. They do, but they'll just point at whats already
Tue Jul 7, 2026, 09:57 PM
Tuesday

been stated, but apparently meaningless context.

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