CPI report shows inflation easing in April, with consumer prices still rising 3.4% from a year ago
Last edited Wed May 15, 2024, 10:22 AM - Edit history (1)
Source: CNBC
Published Wed, May 15 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 3 Min Ago
Inflation eased slightly in April, providing at least a bit of relief for consumers while still holding above levels that would suggest a cut in interest rates is imminent.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. That was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.4%.
On a 12-month basis, however, the CPI increased 3.4%, in line with expectations. Excluding food and energy, the key core inflation reading came in at 0.3% monthly and 3.6% on an annual basis, both as forecast. The core 12-month inflation reading was the lowest since April 2021 while the monthly increase was the smallest since December.
Markets reacted positively after the CPI release, with futures tied to major stock indexes rallying and Treasury yields tumbling. Futures traders raised the implied probability that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in September.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/15/cpi-inflation-april-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-april.html
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CPI for all items rises 0.3% in April; shelter and gasoline up https://bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
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8:30 AM · May 15, 2024
Article updated.
Previous articles/headlines -
Inflation eased slightly in April, providing at least a bit of relief for consumers while still holding above levels that would suggest a cut in interest rates is imminent.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services reported Wednesday. That was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.4%.
(snip)
On a 12-month basis, however, the CPI increased 3.4%, in line with expectations. Excluding food and energy, the key core inflation reading came in at 0.3% monthly and 3.6% on an annual basis, both as forecast. The core 12-month inflation reading was the lowest since April 2021 while the month increase was the smallest since December.
Markets reacted positively after the CPI release, with futures tied to major stock indexes rallying and Treasury yields tumbling. Futures traders raised the implied probability that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in September.
Published Wed, May 15 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 2 Min Ago
Inflation eased slightly in April, providing at least a bit of relief for consumers while still holding above levels that would suggest a cut in interest rates is imminent.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services reported Wednesday. That was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.4%.
(snip)
On a 12-month basis, however, the CPI increased 3.4%, in line with expectations. Excluding food and energy, the key core inflation reading came in at 0.3% monthly and 3.6% on an annual basis, both as forecast. The core 12-month inflation reading was the lowest since April 2021.
Markets reacted positively after the CPI release, with futures tied to major stock indexes rallying and Treasury yields tumbling. Futures traders raised the implied probability that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in September.
Published Wed, May 15 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 1 Min Ago
Inflation eased slightly in April, providing at least a bit of relief for consumers while still holding above levels that would suggest a cut in interest rates is imminent.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services reported Wednesday. That was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.4%.
On a 12-month basis, however, the CPI increased 3.4%, in line with expectations.,
Excluding food and energy, the key core inflation reading came in at 0.3% monthly and 3.6% on an annual basis, both as forecast.
This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.
Original article -
The consumer price index was expected to increase 3.4% from a year ago, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.
= new reply since forum marked as read
Last edited Sat Jun 1, 2024, 12:16 AM - Edit history (8)
I've been seeing some mischaracterizations of the recent inflation situation in the media, so here is a summary table followed by the graphs.
I annualize them all to be easy to compare to each other, and to compare to the FED's 2% goal. I use the actual index values rather than the one-digit changes that are commonly reported in the media. Links to the data are with the graphs.
ALL the numbers are the seasonally adjusted ones
The "1 month" number is the change from March to April expressed as an annualized number. (Exception: The PCE is from February to March -- they don't update their number for April until late in May)
The "3 month" number is the growth over the last 3 months (and then annualized). It is calculated based on the change in the index number between the latest one and the one 3 months previous. e.g. if the latest index value is 304 and the one 3 months previous is 300, then the 3 month increase is 1.333333%
. . . (304/300 = 1.01333333 => [subtract 1 and multiply by 100%] => 1.333333%)
Annualized, it is 5.4%
. . . (1.01333333^4 = 1.0544095 => [subtract 1 and multiply by 100%] => 5.44095% => 5.4%).
. . . Most people just multiply the 3 month increase by 4 to annualize it: 1.333333%*4 = 5.333333% => 5.3% which isn''t technically correct (it leaves out compounding) but it is close for small percentage changes.
"Regular" is the "headline" number that has "everything"
"Core" is the regular with food and energy removed (The Fed prefers this as a basis for projecting FUTURE inflation)
Finally, the main summary table
All are seasonally adjusted and annualized
PCE-Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Fed's favorite inflation measure)
CPI-Consumer Price Index (retail)
PPI-Producer Price Index (Wholesale prices)
Links to the data are with the graphs below
Average real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) hourly earnings are up over the past 2 years and are above the pre-pandemic level:
. . . # Real average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032
. . . # Real average hourly earnings of private sector workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013
And now the graphs, in the following order:
* Core PCE and Regular PCE (Core PCE is the Fed's favorite for projecting FUTURE inflation)
* Core CPI and Regular CPI
* Wholesale inflation - Core PPI and Regular PPI
CORE PCE through *March* that came out 4/26/24
CORE PCE (seasonally adjusted): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE
BEA.gov News release: https://www.bea.gov/ and click on "Personal Income and Outlays" or "Personal Income"
This is the one that the Fed weighs most heavily. The Fed weigh the PCE more heavily than the CPI. And in both cases, they weigh the CORE measures higher than the regular headline measures for projecting FUTURE inflation
Regular PCE through *March* that came out 4/26/24
Regular PCE (seasonally adjusted): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
BEA.gov News release: https://www.bea.gov/ and click on "Personal Income and Outlays" or "Personal Income"
CORE CPI through April that came out 5/15/24
CORE CPI (seasonally adjusted) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
BLS CPI news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
The Regular aka Headline CPI through April that came out 5/15/24
Regular CPI (seasonally adjusted) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
BLS CPI news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
WHOLESALE INFLATION (PPI - the Producer Price Index)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
As for which core PPI measure, since the BLS highlights the one below in its reporting (as opposed to the one without food and energy), then I guess I should do likewise.
CORE PPI (excluding food, energy, trade services) through April that came out 5/14/24:
CORE PPI (seasonally adjusted) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116
===========================================================
Regular PPI through April that came out 5/14/24 ( includes "everything" ):
Regular PPI (seasonally adjusted) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
is the Senate and their Rules. 