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BumRushDaShow

(130,225 posts)
Wed May 15, 2024, 09:38 AM Wednesday

Donald Trump Suffers Huge Vote Against Him in Maryland, Nebraska

Source: Newsweek

Published May 15, 2024 at 2:28 AM EDT


Donald Trump is continuing to see possible warning signs for his White House bid as significant numbers of people are still voting against him in the GOP primary. On Tuesday, the presumptive 2024 Republican candidate continued his domination in the primaries with resounding victories in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia, winning 80 percent, 79.6 percent and 88.4 percent of the votes in the respective states.

However, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the race two months ago, is still receiving a notable number of votes against the former president, winning 20 percent of the vote in Maryland, or more than 47,500 votes, and 17.8 percent in Nebraska, which amounts to nearly 37,000 ballots.

The Context

While Trump easily secured the GOP presidential nomination, winning all but two of the primary races, there have been signs that the former president is struggling to fully win over Republicans beyond his MAGA base as waves of voters continue to support Haley.

Haley was seen as a more moderate Republican candidate in the GOP primary, with moderates and independents seen as potentially vital to Trump's hopes of taking back the White House from President Joe Biden in November.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-vote-against-maryland-nebraska-primary-nikki-haley-1900717

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Donald Trump Suffers Huge Vote Against Him in Maryland, Nebraska (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Wednesday OP
And notably, the polls were completely wrong..... getagrip_already Wednesday #1
I agree gab13by13 Wednesday #2
Depends on the media narrative getagrip_already Wednesday #4
IIRC in 2016 Hillary Clinton was assumed by far to be the winner ClaudetteCC Wednesday #9
Yep...I don't remember Biden having any poll lead in 2020 Bengus81 Wednesday #12
Some polls are garbage NanaCat Yesterday #14
I wonder if Trump will make Berry Goldwater's 1964 loss look small? Botany Wednesday #3
Gosh, I hope so... Ligyron Wednesday #10
In every state and even in the red ones where a woman's right to health care aka abortion has been on ... Botany Wednesday #11
Even if Biden grabs 20% of Haley votes, and 15% more stay home bucolic_frolic Wednesday #5
i like your math et tu Wednesday #6
Makes me wonder. SarahD Wednesday #7
Note too that they are also voting for other candidates and initiatives BumRushDaShow Wednesday #8
Makes me wonder if Trump would pull a Joe Biden and ask Haley to be his running mate. ificandream Wednesday #13
He won't pick her NanaCat Yesterday #15

getagrip_already

(15,026 posts)
1. And notably, the polls were completely wrong.....
Wed May 15, 2024, 09:42 AM
Wednesday

Both in these primaries and the dem senate primary in Maryland.

When are people going to wake up to the the fact that polls are garbage?

Yet, they get the vapors every time one comes out.

gab13by13

(21,527 posts)
2. I agree
Wed May 15, 2024, 09:49 AM
Wednesday

Polls are used for propaganda.

Are there ever any polls that overestimate the winning margin for a Democrat?

Why is it that all of the polls predict a better % than the actual vote for the Magat?

getagrip_already

(15,026 posts)
4. Depends on the media narrative
Wed May 15, 2024, 09:55 AM
Wednesday

There are times when they pump up a dem, presumably to suppress dem turnout.

Usually that's done when there is a hot button issue on the ballot that draws out the gop but doesn't matter to dems, or when people who never voted before become energized to vote for the first time and nobody sees them coming.

Dems figure it's in the bag and they are free to not bother voting, or to protest vote. This happened in 2016.

ClaudetteCC

(26 posts)
9. IIRC in 2016 Hillary Clinton was assumed by far to be the winner
Wed May 15, 2024, 11:34 AM
Wednesday

such that some odds maker (in Ireland) paid out before the election but got it wrong.

Bengus81

(6,941 posts)
12. Yep...I don't remember Biden having any poll lead in 2020
Wed May 15, 2024, 01:28 PM
Wednesday

Nah...Joe was going to be sent packing by his Highness Trump according to the MSM which Magots and other Republicans that always claim their rigged for Dems.

NanaCat

(1,605 posts)
14. Some polls are garbage
Thu May 16, 2024, 02:50 AM
Yesterday

Because they develop them in league with clients who want a certain outcome.

However, maybe try not jumping to the worst conclusions about what's up with how volatile the polls are. Trends can catch pollsters flat-footed, and they don't always turn on a dime to account for them.

That's why I suspect that the problems in polling now come not from malice, but from the pollsters being behind where voters are right now. They're still trying to sort out the effect of the Dobbs decision with the squishy middle of the potential electorate, and now they're slammed with accounting for dissension over TSF in GQP ranks, too.

These trends aren't easy to account for, mathematically, and adjusting for that won't happen overnight.

Botany

(70,682 posts)
3. I wonder if Trump will make Berry Goldwater's 1964 loss look small?
Wed May 15, 2024, 09:50 AM
Wednesday

And will he even be running in the fall if he has felony convictions?

Ligyron

(7,652 posts)
10. Gosh, I hope so...
Wed May 15, 2024, 12:53 PM
Wednesday

A more normal candidate, like a Haley, would be much harder to beat.

As it is, conviction or not, if Trump’s still on the ballot many more normal GOP voters will either stay home or more likely vote all GOP except for President, either a write in or they may actually vote for Biden and for democracy to continue.

There’s a lot of pissed off women, a good number of which are GOP and will vote Democrat because of Roe being canceled by their own party.

Got carried away, but that’s the way I see it, anyway.

Botany

(70,682 posts)
11. In every state and even in the red ones where a woman's right to health care aka abortion has been on ...
Wed May 15, 2024, 01:17 PM
Wednesday

…. the ballot the vote has been pro women. Add in that it is very likely that Trump will be a
convicted felony by Election Day and Btw Trump is way underwater as per popularity
across much of America too.

Also Trump is draining the RNC’s funds to pay off his legal bills. Not that we should stop
working but we could see a massive blue wave this fall.



bucolic_frolic

(43,592 posts)
5. Even if Biden grabs 20% of Haley votes, and 15% more stay home
Wed May 15, 2024, 09:58 AM
Wednesday

and RFK Jr grabs 3% ....

We would have to lose 40% of black vote and 25% of progressives stay home just to equal the 2020 %'s.

Or at least that's my off the cuff back of the envelope math.

SarahD

(1,359 posts)
7. Makes me wonder.
Wed May 15, 2024, 10:32 AM
Wednesday

A significant number of Republicans are making the effort to vote for a candidate who dropped out.

BumRushDaShow

(130,225 posts)
8. Note too that they are also voting for other candidates and initiatives
Wed May 15, 2024, 10:48 AM
Wednesday

and the act of "voting" means they don't get purged from the rolls.

Haley has been getting anywhere from 12% - 25% of the GOP vote through all of the primaries (45 states) to date, and the media wants to ignore that to focus on the Biden "uncommitted" vote (although some of that over-focus has finally died down a bit because it was hypocritical).

Back of the envelope based on this (PDF) - https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024pdates.pdf

was that there are now 5 states plus D.C. left to vote (plus a couple territories) and it has been consistent in almost all of them.

ificandream

(9,436 posts)
13. Makes me wonder if Trump would pull a Joe Biden and ask Haley to be his running mate.
Wed May 15, 2024, 02:14 PM
Wednesday

I kind of doubt she would, but then so many Republicans who have spoken out against him have come back to his fold.

NanaCat

(1,605 posts)
15. He won't pick her
Thu May 16, 2024, 02:54 AM
Yesterday

She's hurt his fee-fees. Plus, too many in his base will never vote for a ticket with a VP who is brown, a woman or, worst of all to them, both.

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