New analysis suggests national debt could increase under Harris, but it would surge under Trump

Source: Associated Press

POLITICS
New analysis suggests national debt could increase under Harris, but it would surge under Trump

BY JOSH BOAK
Updated 12:06 AM EDT, October 7, 2024

WASHINGTON (AP) -- No one is likely to be happy with the projected higher deficits laid out in a new analysis of Kamala Harris' and Donald Trump's economic plans.

The analysis released Monday by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget suggests a Harris presidency could increase the national debt over 10 years by $3.5 trillion. That's even though the vice president's campaign insists her proposed investments in the middle class and housing would be fully offset by higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Her campaign policy guide states that Harris is "committed to fiscal responsibility -- making investments that will support our economy, while paying for them and reducing the deficit at the same time."

The same analysis says former President Trump's ideas could heap another $7.5 trillion onto the debt and possibly as much as $15.2 trillion. That's even though he suggests growth would be so strong under his watch that no one would need to worry about deficits.

The 34-page report released by the fiscal watchdog group puts a spotlight on the issue of government borrowing that will confront the winner of November's election. Total federal debt held by the public now tops $28 billion and is expected to keep climbing as revenues can't keep up with the growing costs of Social Security, Medicare and other programs. The analysis noted that the expense of servicing that debt in dollar terms has "eclipsed the cost of defending our nation or providing health care to elderly Americans."

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Read more: https://apnews.com/article/budget-deficit-trump-harris-kamala-debt-1ee3ff65e22ccf19d19b792ee22c46da

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The report is an analysis. The news is that it was released.

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The Fiscal Impact of the Harris and Trump Campaign Plans

https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans

OCT 7, 2024 US BUDGET WATCH 2024

The next President will face significant fiscal challenges upon taking office, including record debt levels, large structural deficits, surging interest payments, and the looming insolvency of critical trust fund programs.1 Our large and growing national debt threatens to slow economic growth, boost interest rates and payments, weaken national security, constrain policy choices, and increase the risk of an eventual fiscal crisis.

However, neither major candidate running in the 2024 presidential election has put forward a plan to address this rising debt burden. In fact, our comprehensive analysis of the candidates' tax and spending plans finds that both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump would likely further increase deficits and debt above levels projected under current law.

Under our central estimate, Vice President Harris's plan would increase the debt by $3.50 trillion through 2035, while President Trump's plan would increase the debt by $7.50 trillion.

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These estimates come with a wide range of uncertainty, reflecting both different interpretations and estimates of the policies. Under our low- and high-cost estimates, we estimate Vice President Harris's plan could have no significant fiscal impact or increase debt by $8.10 trillion through 2035, while President Trump's plan could increase debt by between $1.45 and $15.15 trillion. Our analysis will be updated if additional policies are introduced.

{Snip a lot of fine print, charts, and numbers.}