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Dem House candidates smoke GOP rivals in 11th hour fundraising
Source: Axios
4 hours ago
Democrats running in battleground House districts clobbered their Republican opponents in fundraising between July and September, an Axios analysis has found.
Why it matters: It gives Democrats both a signal of grassroots enthusiasm and a much-needed cash advantage going into the final stretch of the battle for the House ahead of Nov. 5.
By the numbers: Democrats in races rated as "Toss-up," "Lean Democrat" or "Lean Republican" by Cook Political Report raised an average of nearly $2 million in that three-month period, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
By contrast, Republicans in those 43 districts raised an average of just under $800,000, and all but two were out-raised by their Democratic foes. Only Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) and former Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Texas) raised more than their Democratic opponents, the filings showed. Even many Republican incumbents, some who have been in Congress for years, were bested in fundraising — some by overwhelming margins.
Between the lines: Several sources in both parties pointed to Vice President Harris replacing President Biden atop the Democratic ticket in July, shortly into the third quarter, as a critical driver of Democratic donor excitement.
Read more: https://www.axios.com/2024/10/17/house-democrats-republicans-2024-fundraising
6 replies
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both criminal and civil, so that's a lot of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ for retainers and court costs and whatnot. 
I notice that the corporate media refuse to speculate on THAT "narrative" and prefer to help 45 and Johnson to measure the drapes. 
They don't want to entertain that because it "wouldn't fit past history", so the possibility would be remote in their minds (the MISTAKE they made in 2022) -
What I Got Wrong In 2022
By Nathaniel Rakich
Dec. 28, 2022, at 6:00 AM
Here’s a prediction that 100 percent, absolutely, positively will come true: I will get something wrong in 2023. Here at FiveThirtyEight, we make a lot of predictions every year; some of them work out, but we can’t get every single one right. We can, however, learn from our mistakes. That’s why I like to write about everything I got wrong in the previous 12 months.1 I do this for two reasons: First, they’re often unintentionally hilarious (and when you’re a politics reporter, sometimes you need a laugh); second, identifying my blind spots has helped me become a better analyst.
And there’s no shortage of material for this year’s installment. Let’s start with a tweet I wrote on Nov. 6, 2020, shortly after it became clear that Joe Biden had won the presidential race: “Congratulations to Republicans on their victory in the 2022 midterms!” This was obviously meant to be snarky but also to communicate a political tenet: that the president’s party almost always has a bad midterm election. Of course, that tweet wasn’t from 2022, but I also made this argument in January of this year. And for several months thereafter, my analysis was colored by my expectation that 2022 would be a good election year for Republicans. As everyone knows by now, the midterms were a disappointment for Republicans. They won the House — but only barely (they gained just nine seats on net). Meanwhile, Democrats gained a seat in the Senate.
Clearly, I was overly confident in my early prediction. While it is true that the president’s party almost always has a poor midterm, there have been exceptions. And the 2022 midterms turned out to be one of these “asterisk elections,” thanks in no small part to the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization to overturn the constitutional right to abortion. This year I should have been more prepared for the possibility that the ruling could throw a wrench into the election, especially after a draft of the decision was leaked in May. And even after the decision, it took me a while to become convinced that voter anger over Dobbs would prove durable enough to last until Election Day.
It wasn’t until the fall that I revised my expectations from a “red wave” to a “red ripple.” My biggest mistake here was not realizing just how common an “asterisk election” actually is. I often quoted one key stat: that the president’s party had gained House seats in only two of the previous 19 midterm elections. But there were four other midterms where the president’s party lost fewer than 10 House seats — so what happened in 2022 isn’t that rare. I also neglected to remember that the president’s party had lost Senate seats in only 13 of the last 19 midterms. In other words, midterms like 2022 happen about a third of the time — way too frequently to count them out.
(snip)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-predictions-i-got-wrong/
By Nathaniel Rakich
Dec. 28, 2022, at 6:00 AM
Here’s a prediction that 100 percent, absolutely, positively will come true: I will get something wrong in 2023. Here at FiveThirtyEight, we make a lot of predictions every year; some of them work out, but we can’t get every single one right. We can, however, learn from our mistakes. That’s why I like to write about everything I got wrong in the previous 12 months.1 I do this for two reasons: First, they’re often unintentionally hilarious (and when you’re a politics reporter, sometimes you need a laugh); second, identifying my blind spots has helped me become a better analyst.
And there’s no shortage of material for this year’s installment. Let’s start with a tweet I wrote on Nov. 6, 2020, shortly after it became clear that Joe Biden had won the presidential race: “Congratulations to Republicans on their victory in the 2022 midterms!” This was obviously meant to be snarky but also to communicate a political tenet: that the president’s party almost always has a bad midterm election. Of course, that tweet wasn’t from 2022, but I also made this argument in January of this year. And for several months thereafter, my analysis was colored by my expectation that 2022 would be a good election year for Republicans. As everyone knows by now, the midterms were a disappointment for Republicans. They won the House — but only barely (they gained just nine seats on net). Meanwhile, Democrats gained a seat in the Senate.
Clearly, I was overly confident in my early prediction. While it is true that the president’s party almost always has a poor midterm, there have been exceptions. And the 2022 midterms turned out to be one of these “asterisk elections,” thanks in no small part to the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization to overturn the constitutional right to abortion. This year I should have been more prepared for the possibility that the ruling could throw a wrench into the election, especially after a draft of the decision was leaked in May. And even after the decision, it took me a while to become convinced that voter anger over Dobbs would prove durable enough to last until Election Day.
It wasn’t until the fall that I revised my expectations from a “red wave” to a “red ripple.” My biggest mistake here was not realizing just how common an “asterisk election” actually is. I often quoted one key stat: that the president’s party had gained House seats in only two of the previous 19 midterm elections. But there were four other midterms where the president’s party lost fewer than 10 House seats — so what happened in 2022 isn’t that rare. I also neglected to remember that the president’s party had lost Senate seats in only 13 of the last 19 midterms. In other words, midterms like 2022 happen about a third of the time — way too frequently to count them out.
(snip)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-predictions-i-got-wrong/