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mahatmakanejeeves

(62,838 posts)
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 03:33 AM Oct 2024

Trump proposals could drain Social Security in 6 years, budget group says

Source: Washington Post

Trump proposals could drain Social Security in 6 years, budget group says

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget predicts many of Trump’s policies could hasten the looming depletion of the Social Security Trust Fund.

By Julie Zauzmer Weil
October 21, 2024 at 12:05 a.m. EDT

A new report projects that the Social Security Trust Fund might run out of money within six years under a Donald Trump presidency, while Vice President Kamala Harris’s proposed policies would not meaningfully change the current trajectory.

Social Security faces a looming funding crisis in an aging country, with trustees most recently predicting that the retirement and disability program’s trust fund will become insolvent in 2035. Many of Trump’s campaign proposals would accelerate that timeline, potentially by years, said the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group that opposes large federal deficits.

In a report released Monday, the organization concluded that many of Trump’s proposed second-term agenda items all work in the same direction when it comes to the Social Security Trust Fund. The budget group did not produce a similar report on Harris’s policies because they would have a negligible effect measured only in weeks or months rather than years, said Marc Goldwein, CRFB’s senior policy director.

{snip}

Most directly, Trump has promised that no Social Security recipients should have to pay federal income taxes on their benefits. Under current law, 40 percent of beneficiaries pay taxes on some portion of their Social Security. The tax they pay on their benefits goes directly back to the trust fund, and getting rid of it could cost the program almost $1 trillion over 10 years, the report forecast.

{snip}

By Julie Weil
Julie Z. Weil reports on taxes. She has worked at The Post since 2013, including four years covering religion in America and two covering local government in D.C.follow on X @juliezweil

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/10/21/social-security-crfb-trump-harris/

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Trump proposals could drain Social Security in 6 years, budget group says (Original Post) mahatmakanejeeves Oct 2024 OP
I'm hypothesizing that MAGA is, nearly unanimously, comprised of those who believe........ jaxexpat Oct 2024 #1
Well said jayschool2013 Oct 2024 #9
A lot of the Felon's cultists are seniors receiving Social Security! MontanaMama Oct 2024 #28
Many boomers feel left out of the new age. That's on them. Life's mostly about "how you take it". jaxexpat Oct 2024 #31
And yet the MAGA crowd will adore this COL Mustard Oct 2024 #2
Comforting to know it's supposed to be insolvent just when BWdem4life Oct 2024 #3
It won't be flat broke.... AZ8theist Oct 2024 #4
I know, right? I become eligible for benefits in 2033 (if I took early) Moostache Oct 2024 #19
Take it eRly moonshinegnomie Oct 2024 #22
I agree, but you'd have to NOT spend it (i.e. save it), while you are working. Otherwise, people might get screwed. ... aggiesal Oct 2024 #27
I have not...but I thought I would have more than 6 years to decide too! (n/t) Moostache Oct 2024 #32
Read my response #23 n/t aggiesal Oct 2024 #24
Raise the eligibility age to 70 and multigraincracker Oct 2024 #5
or roofer, or firefighter, or any other high risk occupation spooky3 Oct 2024 #15
If the Republicans manage to ruin markodochartaigh Oct 2024 #6
The best way to save it is remove the income cap. multigraincracker Oct 2024 #8
Too fatty ArkansasDemocrat1 Oct 2024 #18
What a surprise North Coast Lawyer Oct 2024 #21
A shame that the MAGAts are more intent on ridding the world of brown people. Miles Archer Oct 2024 #7
It will just empty the trust fund Farmer-Rick Oct 2024 #10
Didn't read the article LittleGirl Oct 2024 #11
"continue to be taxed on the money you were taxed on 40 years ago." Bayard Oct 2024 #17
I agree! Millionaires don't need it! nt LittleGirl Oct 2024 #20
Morons who vote against their own economic self-interests. Tarzanrock Oct 2024 #12
My solution... Scalded Nun Oct 2024 #13
I recall a young man some 25 years ago or so calling your Item 1 a Prairie Gates Oct 2024 #37
Republicans have been trying to brake SS for years, republianmushroom Oct 2024 #14
Their doing a good job breaking the Post Office underpants Oct 2024 #26
Improving and protecting SocSec is simple Rocknation Oct 2024 #16
I wish people could understand what the Social Security Trust Fund is ... aggiesal Oct 2024 #23
People talk about 2035 as if it's still 2005. "In 6 years" is only 4 years fewer than Harris' policies mathematic Oct 2024 #25
There is no "will" because there is no NEED to do much of anything. valleyrogue Oct 2024 #36
So, a Trump "concept of a plan" that would actually work. dchill Oct 2024 #29
The cuts to SSAN benefits being taxed is just the start. Old Crank Oct 2024 #30
The Con would make sure every penny in SS coffers line his pockets onetexan Oct 2024 #33
No problem. Turbineguy Oct 2024 #34
It's all bullshit. SS can't "go broke." valleyrogue Oct 2024 #35
This times 1000. There is no social security trust fund Deminpenn Oct 2024 #38
 

jaxexpat

(7,794 posts)
1. I'm hypothesizing that MAGA is, nearly unanimously, comprised of those who believe........
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 04:55 AM
Oct 2024

Social Security will not be there for them. Further, that many of them have no savings, implying they have no real sense of a place in their own or any other future. If I'm right, we are a nation of incipient and destitute suicides.............and that may well be Trump's plan. Such a lazy approach to life seems appropriate for one who never bothers to think any of the hard stuff through.

MontanaMama

(24,241 posts)
28. A lot of the Felon's cultists are seniors receiving Social Security!
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 02:08 PM
Oct 2024

They support the destruction of their own safety net. It makes no sense.

 

jaxexpat

(7,794 posts)
31. Many boomers feel left out of the new age. That's on them. Life's mostly about "how you take it".
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 02:58 PM
Oct 2024

Mental health is an attitude. Much more so than the inconsequential subjectivity of "how it is". For about 60% of people, it's a natural response of maturity vs a childishness which perpetually manifests as a special kind of resentment for real (or even perceived) offense, thus justifying their offensiveness.

AZ8theist

(6,625 posts)
4. It won't be flat broke....
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 05:42 AM
Oct 2024

...but benefits may be reduced unless congress acts.
Makes the need to vote Democratic that much more urgent. There are planty of Dem lawmakers who want to expand SS rather than gut it like the Repukes.

Tax the living piss out of Eloon Musk and the sysem will be solvent.*

*not really, but changes to tax withholding will solve any "crisis" in the future. Making the rich "pay their fare share" is not a campaign slogan. It is a real life need for millions of Americans to survive in the future.

Moostache

(10,284 posts)
19. I know, right? I become eligible for benefits in 2033 (if I took early)
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 10:57 AM
Oct 2024

I want to beat these politicians over the head with blunt objects already...

moonshinegnomie

(3,072 posts)
22. Take it eRly
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 12:57 PM
Oct 2024

I did the math. It’s true you get higher benifits if you wait but the break even is around age 78. If you take it at 62 you get 5 years of benefits that take a decade of higher payments to recoup

aggiesal

(9,752 posts)
27. I agree, but you'd have to NOT spend it (i.e. save it), while you are working. Otherwise, people might get screwed. ...
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 01:54 PM
Oct 2024

by paying taxes at a much higher rate, because of their current salary.
Also, both campaigns are wanting to remove the federal tax from SS payments.
Have you calculated what the difference would be paying a higher tax rate on current SS payments while still working, versus not working?

spooky3

(36,929 posts)
15. or roofer, or firefighter, or any other high risk occupation
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 10:37 AM
Oct 2024

However, I wouldn't mind if one particular McDonald's temporary weekend employee (Donald McD) was denied benefits...

markodochartaigh

(2,246 posts)
6. If the Republicans manage to ruin
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 06:14 AM
Oct 2024

Social Security millions of seniors will be forced to sell their only major asset, their homes, into a market that will be spiraling downward because of the massive oversupply, in order to get money for their living expenses. Seniors will lose their homes, and the younger generation will lose their inheritance.

And, as in 2008, the houses will be snatched up for pennies on the dollar, in cash, in large groups by hedge funds. Individuals who want to buy a house will have little chance at the bottom of the market against hedge funds who can buy a hundred houses at once for cash from their golfing buddies at the bank.

Ruining Social Security is simply a way of asset stripping the working and middle class for the benefit of the rich.

multigraincracker

(34,823 posts)
8. The best way to save it is remove the income cap.
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 06:30 AM
Oct 2024

Make billionaires pay 7% of all their income into it.
Taxes are the cost of Civilization. Or, Eat The Rich

21. What a surprise
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 10:59 AM
Oct 2024

Rigging the game in favor of the rich and facilitating the transfer of what few scraps ordinary folks have accumulated back the the rich? Say it ain't so!

Miles Archer

(18,960 posts)
7. A shame that the MAGAts are more intent on ridding the world of brown people.
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 06:24 AM
Oct 2024

I'm stunned by the "it won't happen to me" mentality.

And what we already know is that if Trump DID get back into power and these things happened, Democrats would be blamed for it.

The adults need to get out there and vote because the children clearly do not comprehend what's at stake.

Farmer-Rick

(11,645 posts)
10. It will just empty the trust fund
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 08:49 AM
Oct 2024

When Social Security was first developed, the current work force paid for their parents' retirement. The trust fund was simply a pass through account, where money sat momentarily until it was time to distribute it.

Then came senile old Raygun and he doubled the SocSec tax. He put half our SocSec tax in the trust fund and half went to the Baby Boomers' parents. That hunk of money in the trust fund is supposed to go away after we Baby Boomers all die. It's supposed to turn into a pass through account again.

So it doesn't matter if the account is mostly emptied, as long as this generation still is putting money into it for their retirement. A simple adjustment to force lazy billionaires to pay their fair share will easily solve any future problems.

Also Republicans like to lump Medicare and SocSec together. This makes it seem like the healthcare funding problems of our commercialized medical practices are SocSec problems. They are Not.

Unless Trump starts taking out money from the SocSec trust fund to pay for government or his excessive lifestyle, SocSec should be solvent.

LittleGirl

(8,563 posts)
11. Didn't read the article
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 08:57 AM
Oct 2024

But my first SS check is in the mail. My birthday is Wednesday and my first check is next month. If I had to live off of that check, I'd have to move to Alabama or something because there is no way I could pay rent, gas, groceries and utilities on less than 1500 a month. Nope. I saved all of my life but there is something to be said about people that work for 40 years, pay taxes for every one of those 40 years and then draw SS and continue to be taxed on the money you were taxed on 40 years ago. I remember when Obama proposed that SS recipients made less than 50k, they wouldn't be taxed anymore. It never happened and I know Obama lost one vote over that, not me, someone I know.

Thankfully, my spouse is still working and still contributing to our nest egg despite me drawing as soon as I'm eligible. He also manages our investments so that we can survive when he retires in about another decade.

Bayard

(24,234 posts)
17. "continue to be taxed on the money you were taxed on 40 years ago."
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 10:51 AM
Oct 2024

This righteously pisses me off.

No taxes on SS--like it used to be before Reagan got hold of it, and raise the cap. Simple and understandable, even for MAGAts. That would give all of us who depend on it a hell of a lot more money every month, and make the wealthy pay their fair share. I also think, once they pass a certain threshold of income, they should not be eligible for drawing SS.

Tarzanrock

(600 posts)
12. Morons who vote against their own economic self-interests.
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 09:16 AM
Oct 2024

Morons who vote against their own economic self-interests. If you are not rich, you have to be some kind of "special" stupid to vote for Republicans. Ever since Franklin Roosevelt and the Democrats started the Social Security Pension program it has long been the "wet" dream of the Republican Fascists to kill Social Security. The Turd will do it! The idea of "America" when it was founded was that it was not to be a "tax haven" for Oligarchs and the Aristocracy -- a place where rich people only pay a 12% Capital Gains Tax on income which they report and everyone else pays at least 30% or more out of their weekly paychecks.

Scalded Nun

(1,349 posts)
13. My solution...
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 09:29 AM
Oct 2024

1. Remove the SS trust fund account from any federal budget process and protect the funds from being accessed (Stealing, 'Borrowing', Redirecting, etc.).
2. Pay back in to that fund all monies that have been 'Borrowed, Stolen, or Misappropriated' over the years.
3. Eliminate the wages cap.

I have done no math in this area, but I figure that should set SS on a good course for the future.

None of this will affect most Americans, so the fight to do it would be long and bloody.

Prairie Gates

(4,058 posts)
37. I recall a young man some 25 years ago or so calling your Item 1 a
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 10:14 PM
Oct 2024

Lock Box.

He was roundly mocked across news and media for that one. Ay yay yay.

Rocknation

(44,895 posts)
16. Improving and protecting SocSec is simple
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 10:44 AM
Oct 2024

Remove the salary ceiling that prevents everyone from paying (which would lower everyone's rate) and place it on the benefits (the annual U.S. median income, for instance).


Rocknation

aggiesal

(9,752 posts)
23. I wish people could understand what the Social Security Trust Fund is ...
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 01:27 PM
Oct 2024

Back in the 80's, Reagan (I'm sick that Reagan was the one to implement this) figured out that the Baby Boomers were about to retire in the 90's & 2000's and that Social Security did not have the funds to supports all these new retiree's.

So a Trust Fund was created, where my generation basically paid double the Social Security with about half going into the Trust Fund.
The money from this Trust Fund was invested in U.S. Treasury Bonds to make some interest on that money.
This Trust Fund would then increase in size until the payment of Social Security to Baby Boomers (& everyone really), exceeded the amount coming into the Trust Fund, which happened around 2011, I believe. When this happened, some of the U.S. Bonds were sold to cover the difference. This happens every month.
The Trust Fund is expected to eventually deplete down to $0, where at this point, Social Security would just work of incoming money to pay the outgoing money.
It was originally estimated that the Trust Fund would be completely depleted by 2042 (I believe), but through COLA's & under estimating the number of retirees, the date was adjusted to lower dates. Last I heard it was 2032?

If we don't shore up Social Security by 2032, then checks going out to retirees would only be about 75% of their total monthly check.
Obviously, the (R)'s are gaslighting for their benefit by claiming that Social Security is going bankrupt because the Trust Fund is almost depleted, but this was expected and SS is not going bankrupt.

The most popular method to shore up Social Security is the use of the Doughnut Hole. Where we would pay into Social Security up to $400,000 of income (Currently I believe it's about $170K), then not pay anything from $400K to $1M, then pay from $1M on up.
This method is trying to protect the middle class and tax the wealthier income earner.
Other Doughnut Hole option is $250K - $500K non-payment or $250K - $1M non-payment.

The only way to get this done, so to vote in (D)'s before 2032, because they are the only party that is willing to protect Social Security.

I'm not an expert, but I do know a lot about how SS works in terms of Trust Funds.

mathematic

(1,545 posts)
25. People talk about 2035 as if it's still 2005. "In 6 years" is only 4 years fewer than Harris' policies
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 01:40 PM
Oct 2024

There is no political will to do anything about this.

valleyrogue

(1,641 posts)
36. There is no "will" because there is no NEED to do much of anything.
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 10:08 PM
Oct 2024

The Cato Institute and Concord Coalition LIES about SS dating from the1980s continue to pollute public discourse. It is not "going broke." If there is ever a "shortfall," the money can be made up through the general fund. That is how Supplement Security Income (SSI) is funded.

This is all about greed on the part of corporations and their filthy rich owners who do not want to pay their share of the FICA taxes.

Old Crank

(5,235 posts)
30. The cuts to SSAN benefits being taxed is just the start.
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 02:54 PM
Oct 2024

Another issue that got glossed over was not taxing tip income. Service workers pay into the system which includes their tip income. Not taxing tips will cut their benefits later in life. The plans for child leave by taking it off social secutiry payments later also cuts the amount to be paid for workers.

I read another issue about tips not being taxed having to do with people earning large bonuses. Those would likely become tips. So people at stock trading houses that get fat bonuses at year end would have those called tips and be untaxed.

Turbineguy

(38,732 posts)
34. No problem.
Mon Oct 21, 2024, 05:22 PM
Oct 2024

Trump will still be President and he still gets paid and has a place to live.

His supporters will discover that their Social Security checks come from the gubmint.

Deminpenn

(16,505 posts)
38. This times 1000. There is no social security trust fund
Tue Oct 22, 2024, 04:16 AM
Oct 2024

Social security is a pay as you go benefit program. Current benefits are paid out from taxes paid by current workers. When more taxes come in than benefits are paid out, there's a surplus that is, by law, invested in government treasury bonds. There many come a time when incoming social security tax revenue isn't enough to pay current benefits and the investments will have to be cashed in, and paid out just like they would be to any investor in government treasury bills. Then whatever the shortfall is between income and outlay will be paid from the general US budget. Years ago, I read that figure would be around 2% of the federal budget.

There is also a cap on maximum social security benefits of approx $4,000/mo.

https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/colafacts2025.pdf?ftag=YHF4eb9d17

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