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samsingh

(17,900 posts)
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 11:02 AM Oct 28

Early voting: 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting 61%-35% Harris-Trump

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by Omaha Steve (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: Daily Kos

Several polls out lately have asked people if they’ve already voted, and if they have, how they have voted. Here are the polls and the Harris-Trump percentages those early voters have said they voted.

ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33
CNN: Harris 61-36
NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40
HarrisX poll: Harris 61-32
USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34
That’s 5 polls all showing roughly the same thing. There was also a Marist poll of 3 swing states showing Harris up 10-12 points in the early voting of each state, but I’ll just use national polls. Swing states will be closer than the national average (which is why they’re swing states), but there are also blue states where Harris will be ahead even more.

That’s an average of 61.2% for Harris, 35% for Trump.

What this means is that a partisan split of approx. 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting approx. 61%-35% Harris-Trump.

Read more: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/27/2280123/-Early-voting-47-Dem-44-Rep-9-Ind-is-voting-61-35-Harris-Trump



This is what i believe is happening with the higher republican voting. Based on all the polls in the article representing real data (not assumptions), the trend is where i would expect it to be.

Get the vote out!
29 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Early voting: 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting 61%-35% Harris-Trump (Original Post) samsingh Oct 28 OP
Well samsingh, thank you, this is *exactly* what I think is ACTUALLY happening Leghorn21 Oct 28 #1
One caveat to this is the poll jumbers are almost a week old ColinC Oct 28 #2
The current early voting data demographic/party splits remain the same though Mr.WeRP Oct 28 #4
Yeah. Im looking for as much of a "but where is the catch?!" As possible ColinC Oct 28 #7
Just over a week to go! Let's do this! Mr.WeRP Oct 28 #8
Yes!! samsingh Oct 28 #26
This seems to say a high percentage of indies and repubs are breaking for harris? getagrip_already Oct 28 #3
Which is a huge percentage of republicans. ColinC Oct 28 #5
It may be a huge percentage, Phil1967 Oct 28 #16
Well 7% is how it translated to the overall numbers ColinC Oct 28 #17
You got a point, Phil1967 Oct 28 #19
I expected maybe that amount to not vote. But to outright vote for Harris?! This is pretty shocking ColinC Oct 28 #21
Reply deleted TheRickles Oct 28 #12
that's enough to flip alot of races samsingh Oct 28 #27
Keep in mind that people don't always tell the truth Novara Oct 28 #6
Thanks for posting this Farmer-Rick Oct 28 #9
the aggregators are purposely trying to drive the tight race argument samsingh Oct 28 #28
It would be good to think, once again, that ideas, character, policy, honesty, words, and track records matter and wiggs Oct 28 #10
Landslide !!!! Karadeniz Oct 28 #11
This is great news!!! Thank you, samsingh. wordstroken Oct 28 #13
hopefully those margins will spill over into Senate and House races RussBLib Oct 28 #14
I've seen analysts say up to 10% of R ballots could go for Harris. CaptainTruth Oct 28 #15
Looks good. I hope it holds... Wounded Bear Oct 28 #18
Blue skies lookin' at me, ReRe Oct 28 #20
It is funny how these polls were attacked. former9thward Oct 28 #22
Works for me Rocknation Oct 28 #23
this is great of course but the pattern has always been for Repubs to wait until the day of the election where they will LymphocyteLover Oct 28 #24
Turnout is heavy liberal N proud Oct 28 #25
AFTER a review by forum hosts LOCKING Omaha Steve Oct 28 #29

Leghorn21

(13,738 posts)
1. Well samsingh, thank you, this is *exactly* what I think is ACTUALLY happening
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 11:06 AM
Oct 28

Cautiously optimistic here
Tryin ta stay cool, verrrry cooooool.........

ColinC

(10,701 posts)
2. One caveat to this is the poll jumbers are almost a week old
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 11:08 AM
Oct 28

Whereas the early vote numbers are pretty up to date.

Mr.WeRP

(574 posts)
4. The current early voting data demographic/party splits remain the same though
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 11:12 AM
Oct 28

ColinC

(10,701 posts)
7. Yeah. Im looking for as much of a "but where is the catch?!" As possible
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 11:14 AM
Oct 28

And am coming up mostly dry.

Mr.WeRP

(574 posts)
8. Just over a week to go! Let's do this!
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 11:17 AM
Oct 28

samsingh

(17,900 posts)
26. Yes!!
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 01:23 PM
Oct 28

getagrip_already

(17,440 posts)
3. This seems to say a high percentage of indies and repubs are breaking for harris?
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 11:09 AM
Oct 28

Even if all the dems and all the indies are harris voters, thats only 54%.

That leaves 7% that could only come from republican voters.

ColinC

(10,701 posts)
5. Which is a huge percentage of republicans.
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 11:13 AM
Oct 28
 

Phil1967

(14 posts)
16. It may be a huge percentage,
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 12:24 PM
Oct 28

but considering that up to 20% of republicans voted against Trump in the primaries, 7% sounds very reasonable.

ColinC

(10,701 posts)
17. Well 7% is how it translated to the overall numbers
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 12:26 PM
Oct 28

Out of Republicans alone, its looking like close 30%, right?

 

Phil1967

(14 posts)
19. You got a point,
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 12:35 PM
Oct 28

but I don't think it would have to be close to 30% republican votes. 10 to 15% would do it, still in line with what happened during the republican primaries.

ColinC

(10,701 posts)
21. I expected maybe that amount to not vote. But to outright vote for Harris?! This is pretty shocking
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 12:44 PM
Oct 28

TheRickles

(2,414 posts)
12. Reply deleted
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 12:06 PM
Oct 28

samsingh

(17,900 posts)
27. that's enough to flip alot of races
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 01:23 PM
Oct 28

fingers crossed that it only gets stronger in our favor

Novara

(6,115 posts)
6. Keep in mind that people don't always tell the truth
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 11:14 AM
Oct 28

I suspect these numbers are right, but I ain't countin' chickens until they're hatched. Right now, these are still eggs.

People can lie, and some will, just to fuck with whoever is asking the questions. The only way we'll know the truth is after all the votes are counted.

Farmer-Rick

(11,416 posts)
9. Thanks for posting this
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 11:23 AM
Oct 28

I feel confident when I'm out and about, seeing the enthusiasm for Harris and the disgust for Trump. I can understand why the polls, especially the aggregate pollster like 548, are wrong because they are being manipulated. I can see how you can change the betting averages like in Polymarket with lots of bets. So I'm optimistic.

But then all the corporate media says it's neck and neck. I start thinking I misinterpreted the energy. I get worried that the political analysis of the manipulated polls are trying to justify something they can't accept. Then I get worried all over again.

So it's good to see exit polling from corporate media showing Harris with a very big lead. So, I'm back to optimistic.

samsingh

(17,900 posts)
28. the aggregators are purposely trying to drive the tight race argument
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 01:25 PM
Oct 28

there is no other explanation of why they would include 5 iterations of a republican slanted poll into the average

wiggs

(8,040 posts)
10. It would be good to think, once again, that ideas, character, policy, honesty, words, and track records matter and
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 11:45 AM
Oct 28

voters just don't go to their partisan corners in all cases.

The 50-year goal of RW think tanks has been to control information and resources enough so that in the absence of information and knowledge...partisanship is king.

Karadeniz

(23,424 posts)
11. Landslide !!!!
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 11:55 AM
Oct 28

wordstroken

(664 posts)
13. This is great news!!! Thank you, samsingh.
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 12:17 PM
Oct 28

RussBLib

(9,666 posts)
14. hopefully those margins will spill over into Senate and House races
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 12:21 PM
Oct 28

...that would be ideal. Imagine taking the White House, the Senate and the House....

https://russblib.blogspot.com

CaptainTruth

(7,221 posts)
15. I've seen analysts say up to 10% of R ballots could go for Harris.
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 12:23 PM
Oct 28

The numbers you posted (47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind voting approx. 61%-35% Harris-Trump) support that.

I've been thinking she would get 3-4% of R ballots but if she gets 8-9% (or more) that really changes the picture.

Wounded Bear

(60,691 posts)
18. Looks good. I hope it holds...
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 12:34 PM
Oct 28


ReRe

(10,783 posts)
20. Blue skies lookin' at me,
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 12:40 PM
Oct 28

nothin but blue skies do I see!

former9thward

(33,424 posts)
22. It is funny how these polls were attacked.
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 12:59 PM
Oct 28

And now they are to be believed. Maybe we should wait until Election day.

Rocknation

(44,883 posts)
23. Works for me
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 01:00 PM
Oct 28
...Trump is not even getting all of the GOP vote (35% of the vote vs. 44% GOP voters)...(T)hat means...a large (percentage) of the GOP early vote is voting for Harris.

Well, duh dot com -- especially since I called this shot back in December (with an assist from Thomas Michael Crooks back in July).

With a week left, it is now time to forget the polls and get TO the polls...DON'T wait if you don't have to...VOTE if you haven't already!!!


Rocknation

LymphocyteLover

(6,765 posts)
24. this is great of course but the pattern has always been for Repubs to wait until the day of the election where they will
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 01:12 PM
Oct 28

be voting in higher proportions.

But this is WAY higher than early voting has been before for Dems IIRC

liberal N proud

(60,948 posts)
25. Turnout is heavy
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 01:22 PM
Oct 28

Traditionally, that had been good for Democrats.


Omaha Steve

(103,469 posts)
29. AFTER a review by forum hosts LOCKING
Mon Oct 28, 2024, 01:34 PM
Oct 28

Daily Kos is not an appropriate source for LBN. Also polls are not allowed in LBN. They are analysis.

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