Early voting: 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting 61%-35% Harris-Trump
This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by Omaha Steve (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).
Source: Daily Kos
Several polls out lately have asked people if theyve already voted, and if they have, how they have voted. Here are the polls and the Harris-Trump percentages those early voters have said they voted.
ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33
CNN: Harris 61-36
NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40
HarrisX poll: Harris 61-32
USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34
Thats 5 polls all showing roughly the same thing. There was also a Marist poll of 3 swing states showing Harris up 10-12 points in the early voting of each state, but Ill just use national polls. Swing states will be closer than the national average (which is why theyre swing states), but there are also blue states where Harris will be ahead even more.
Thats an average of 61.2% for Harris, 35% for Trump.
What this means is that a partisan split of approx. 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting approx. 61%-35% Harris-Trump.
Read more: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/27/2280123/-Early-voting-47-Dem-44-Rep-9-Ind-is-voting-61-35-Harris-Trump
This is what i believe is happening with the higher republican voting. Based on all the polls in the article representing real data (not assumptions), the trend is where i would expect it to be.
Get the vote out!
Leghorn21
(13,738 posts)Cautiously optimistic here
Tryin ta stay cool, verrrry cooooool.........
ColinC
(10,701 posts)Whereas the early vote numbers are pretty up to date.
Mr.WeRP
(574 posts)ColinC
(10,701 posts)And am coming up mostly dry.
Mr.WeRP
(574 posts)getagrip_already
(17,440 posts)Even if all the dems and all the indies are harris voters, thats only 54%.
That leaves 7% that could only come from republican voters.
ColinC
(10,701 posts)Phil1967
(14 posts)but considering that up to 20% of republicans voted against Trump in the primaries, 7% sounds very reasonable.
ColinC
(10,701 posts)Out of Republicans alone, its looking like close 30%, right?
Phil1967
(14 posts)but I don't think it would have to be close to 30% republican votes. 10 to 15% would do it, still in line with what happened during the republican primaries.
ColinC
(10,701 posts)TheRickles
(2,414 posts)samsingh
(17,900 posts)fingers crossed that it only gets stronger in our favor
Novara
(6,115 posts)I suspect these numbers are right, but I ain't countin' chickens until they're hatched. Right now, these are still eggs.
People can lie, and some will, just to fuck with whoever is asking the questions. The only way we'll know the truth is after all the votes are counted.
Farmer-Rick
(11,416 posts)I feel confident when I'm out and about, seeing the enthusiasm for Harris and the disgust for Trump. I can understand why the polls, especially the aggregate pollster like 548, are wrong because they are being manipulated. I can see how you can change the betting averages like in Polymarket with lots of bets. So I'm optimistic.
But then all the corporate media says it's neck and neck. I start thinking I misinterpreted the energy. I get worried that the political analysis of the manipulated polls are trying to justify something they can't accept. Then I get worried all over again.
So it's good to see exit polling from corporate media showing Harris with a very big lead. So, I'm back to optimistic.
samsingh
(17,900 posts)there is no other explanation of why they would include 5 iterations of a republican slanted poll into the average
wiggs
(8,040 posts)voters just don't go to their partisan corners in all cases.
The 50-year goal of RW think tanks has been to control information and resources enough so that in the absence of information and knowledge...partisanship is king.
Karadeniz
(23,424 posts)wordstroken
(664 posts)RussBLib
(9,666 posts)...that would be ideal. Imagine taking the White House, the Senate and the House....
https://russblib.blogspot.com
CaptainTruth
(7,221 posts)The numbers you posted (47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind voting approx. 61%-35% Harris-Trump) support that.
I've been thinking she would get 3-4% of R ballots but if she gets 8-9% (or more) that really changes the picture.
Wounded Bear
(60,691 posts)ReRe
(10,783 posts)nothin but blue skies do I see!
former9thward
(33,424 posts)And now they are to be believed. Maybe we should wait until Election day.
Rocknation
(44,883 posts)Well, duh dot com -- especially since I called this shot back in December (with an assist from Thomas Michael Crooks back in July).
With a week left, it is now time to forget the polls and get TO the polls...DON'T wait if you don't have to...VOTE if you haven't already!!!
Rocknation
LymphocyteLover
(6,765 posts)be voting in higher proportions.
But this is WAY higher than early voting has been before for Dems IIRC
liberal N proud
(60,948 posts)Traditionally, that had been good for Democrats.
Omaha Steve
(103,469 posts)Daily Kos is not an appropriate source for LBN. Also polls are not allowed in LBN. They are analysis.
Statement of Purpose
Post the latest news from reputable mainstream news websites and blogs. Important news of national interest only. No analysis or opinion pieces. No duplicates. News stories must have been published within the last 12 hours. Use the published title of the story as the title of the discussion thread.