New economic data could aid Democrats' case in election

Source: Axios

11 hours ago


Top Democrats are confident that a trio of economic reports this week will give them one final shot to convince voters that the economy is much better than they think it is.

Why it matters: Hope has replaced dread inside the Biden-Harris administration when it comes to official data drops.

This week they'll get three in a row.

New readings on GDP, inflation and jobs are expected to paint the U.S. economy in a favorable light, giving Democrats fresh ammunition for their closing argument.

Driving the news: On Wednesday, the first print of GDP for the third quarter will show the economy expanded at a robust 3%, according to the consensus of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Then Thursday, a closely watched inflation measure is likely to show the lowest rate of price increases since early 2021, with 2.1% inflation in the 12 months that ended in September.

And on Friday, the jobs report should show the lowest pre-election unemployment rate in 24 years — 4.1% in October, per forecasters. However, the pace of job growth is likely to be dragged down by Hurricanes Helene and Milton and the ongoing Boeing strike.

Flashback: Twelve years ago, the September jobless rate came in at 7.8%, a drop that gave then-President Obama a boost heading into Election Day.

That led Republicans to claim the data release was cooked by nefarious "Chicago guys." (It wasn't.)

Read more: https://www.axios.com/2024/10/28/new-economic-data-aid-democrats-election