and what strategy could be used - especially when these folks live in such a severe "peer pressure" environment.

It was a clever way to suggest simply using "The little white lie".

and unfortunately, no one else seems to be reporting on the ad, but it is newsworthy.

With a tsunami of RW-owned corporate media against us, we are at the point of the old adage - "Leave everything on the field".

the POTUS we’re not having the same conversation.

Why can’t you accept that?

I am in Philly.

My issue was how he and so many others, threw Biden under the bus.

Yes "the perfect is the enemy of the good" (which is why I still posted this with that awful headline) but many of us will have long memories. This is why "politics" sucks.

I don't ever remember seeing it,I would have thought it would be big time news. But NOW...of course they want her elected.

Do you hate Biden for what he did at Clarence Thomas confirmation?

The headline wants you to believe this is controversial. It is not. As if Clooney wouldn't support Harris?

Would people rather have Biden losing in big numbers to the convicted felon? Now we have a good chance to beat that motherfucker but good.

But that's fine. Let's rekindle all the arguments we had right after the debate and it was clear that Biden wasn't up to running successfully. That's helpful days before the election.

No one else is reporting thid as they are stuck on the "45 in a garbage truck" story, but I thought the ad was good.

But disagree that Biden "would be losing in big numbers" because there is a narrative out there, full of RW-commissioned polls, that has promoted that, and the 3 week, 24/7 beat-down of Biden was a fucking disgrace.

so no reminders are needed. Her sisters have her back (as hard as it can be for me to do here on DU).

about Biden and polling. At the time of the debate he was down in the polls and the trend was showing that his numbers were getting worse. He could have reversed that trend if he had a great debate performance but we all saw what happened.

This should be a non-story. What it's done is to re-kindle the argument that poor Biden got shoved aside. Let's not give them what they want. We don't need infighting five days before the election. We need all focus to be on electing Kamala Harris and especially Senate Dems, many of whom are fighting really tough races. We may lose the Senate, and that scares he hell out of me. Even if we retake the House and we keep the presidency, we will literally get nothing done if we lose the Senate. And just imagine the fucking hearings and investigations an R-dominated Senate will open up against Harris.

They literally have no idea who a "likely voter" will be. They have "assumptions", but their complete SCREW-UP with the "Red Tsunami of 2022" and insistence that "the little woman" doesn't give a shit about her own body, is a case in point.

I understand your concern about the manufacturing and magnification of "intra-party squabbling and divisiveness", and that is why I also objected to the headline. But as I noted earlier, it doesn't seem like anyone else is mentioning this ad and when I find them, I try to post them - especially if they are youtube ones because many people on DU don't "do twitter/X", where many ads are running and posted about, so those folks miss them. But I also wanted to put out there that I'm not going to throw Biden under the bus.

And it has been since 2016. They overcorrected in 2020 from 2016, and it appears they are again overcorrecting in 2024, but in the opposite direction.

I believe Harris will win. And I suspect it will not be close in most states.

The polls that show it tied? Not credible. Look at the ground game, look at the yard signs, look at the crowds filling huge venues for the Dem candidate. Look at your local events for each candidate. Look at the money raised by each campain. What you actually see with your own eyes doesn't look like a statistical tie. Right?

Polls are inexact at best, and completely false at worst. Most pollsters have a lean or bias, and most have an agenda. Polling is a science and an art, and what questions they ask, the sample size, the demographics, the confidence level, and most of all, the weighting can skew a poll from favorable to one candidate and unfavorable to the other. And then the next one will report something opposite. They tweak their weighting and they are still getting it wrong. I am anticipating the sturm and drang of pollsters crying about how they could be so wrong after this election too. Then they will overcorrect for 2028.

I look at trends. Are most of them going in one direction? That's maybe a general guidepost, but again, that isn't definitive. I look at VoteHub, which aggregates polls that are rated A+ to B- only. And even most of their results are well within the margin of error, and some experts believe that margin of error should actually be doubled. I'm not sure how they rate pollsters so I even take that with a grain of salt.

Best advice? Don't rely on individual polls. Look around you to see what's happening.

You might have noticed the graphic in my sigline (if you have that option turned on) -



You can't even go by the "trends" anymore. The issue is that the GOP and their conservative boot-lickers, have commissioned dozens and dozens of skewed individual "polls" that get fed into the aggregators. The aggregators arrogantly proclaim that "they correct for that".

No they don't.

In general, there are more "national polls" than "state polls" so when you suddenly get some "extra" state polls from fly-by-night, just-got-started pollsters, they are all over those, and throw them into the pile.

The aggregators end up with garbage and that feeds "the narrative" for the gasbags on teevee. I.e., they use the Nate Silver credos -

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

As I said, polls are garbage and have been since they got it horribly wrong in 2016. Yet people still pay attention like they are gospel. Most people have no clue about the importance of sample size, weighting, the bias of the pollster, the way the questions are phrased, etc.

Polls are speculative, period.

is that they are shifting, just a tiny bit with weaselly headlines, the unusual instance of almost "exact tie" (aggregate) polls week after week. I forgot which site had the analysis (may have been The Independent) but they suggested, what many of us already figure is happening - that the poll "weighting" and what I call their black box nonsensical statistical manipulation as "corrections", are masking what is really going on, and this was being done because the pollsters were wrong the last couple Presidential elections (2016, 2020), where they claim those 2 were due to "underestimating" 45 voters. I would add 2012 in there where they were predicting that Rmoney would win and they were obviously underestimating the Obama voters.

IMHO, they have ZERO clue (or refuse to even entertain it) of who the "likely voter" is. But right now, with the level of early voting, they should have have an idea.

"Oh, poor Biden was pushed out by all these mean people."

Remember when Biden said he wouldn't run for a second term, that he'd pass the torch?

Clooney has lost credibility with me. Just sayin’…

He stuck his neck out with that OpEd, but it wasn't just Clooney - by a long shot.

MUTLIPLE Dem Congresspeople - including Pelosi.

I will always be grateful.

For saying out loud, what many good and loyal Democrats could see with their own eyes - President Biden was not capable of running an aggressive and effective campaign.

Thank you to President Biden for putting country over ego and not gaslighting us like many of his staff were doing.

This is an excellent ad and it addresses a very real problem. There are lots of men in this country that seem to think it diminishes their "manhood" if they vote for a woman.

How does Kamala address this? Well she can't ... it has to be a guy that does it.

Somebody who garners respect from other American men, and whose "manhood" has never been questioned. Somebody like George Clooney. Also I would put Arnold Schwarzenegger in that category.

because that is a real issue for those in 45-herd-mentality communities.

I wonder if Charlie Kirk and his incel army will freak out about bros lying to bros.