Politicians spend millions on internal polling, and they run the numbers in different scenarios.

lol

they make sure to throw in Axelrod quickly following up the GOP concern with "election close blah blah" stuff. Idk what has come over that guy but i wish he would go away. Give me carville all day long.

Carville, and don't forget Van Jones was always part of that group too.

Summer house mortgages are expensive.

You knew the job was dangerous when you took it, Fred.

He was, and is, so right about that

"...campaign aides for former President Donald Trump have “concern” over internal polling. Trump is locked in a tight race..."

Why would there be any "concern" if it's a "tight race?"


Methinks this internal polling is really showing it's anything BUT a tight race, and that TCF is losing bigly.

You absolutely can have a very tight race and see that you're not performing as well as you need to in specific turnout models, giving you concern that you'll have *enough* support to win a close race.

One great example is 2016. Trump didn't win by much but the Clinton campaign realized they were not hitting the metrics they needed to in places like Philadelphia and that it was putting them in the danger zone. Sure enough...

If anything, this points to the idea that it's extremely close. If their internal polling has them only up one or two points in, say Pennsylvania under a specific turnout model, but other data polling indicates they're not hitting the metrics they need to to reflect that turnout model, it absolutely could cause concern in such a close race.

I'll say this: neither campaign thinks either will win "bigly". Both believe this will be a MOE race where turnout is vital to narrow wins.

Whoever wins PA isn't likely to win it by more than two points - and that pretty much goes for Wisconsin and even Michigan too.

No? Then they need to lose this election so badly their party decides to never nominate such a candidate ever again.

That should cause them concern.

I've seen data for 4 states now where it looks like 10-15% of Republican ballots already cast apparently had a vote for Harris. That's based on polling of people who've already voted, saying who they voted for, & looking at the number of Dem/Rep/Ind ballots cast & allocating the Ind votes as polling indicated they would split.

Let's hope!!!

swap from Trump to Harris among ReThugs, a 2-4% turn in Independent voting for Harris vs trump and a 2%+ increase in Dem voters primarily because of Roe. Those are landslide numbers. Hope to HELL I'm right. I just don't see anything that increases the SlobFaters' chances and plenty to increase Harris' chances.

You're correct.

There is no way in hell that all the rethug/Putin/Elon/corporate subversions will outnumber the 7,059,547 win differential that Biden got last time.

20%-differential-route, "obvious" election fraud, and how many, usually and predictably bystander, MAGAs will allow themselves to get sucked into street activism. Because most (in some area codes, all) of the cops in red zones are openly MAGA, I don't count on "peace officers" to uphold just or resolute enforcement to the letter of the law.

If we're respectfully quiet, trusting in our system, its stellar actors and allow the law to work its usual magic, we could see Trump in the oval office no matter the vote in January 2025. If we've had enough of blatant corruption and absurd law mis-enforcement, we may end up learning "crowd dispersal 101" from armed men in blue from army surplus tanks. Dare we even contemplate the state of affairs if there is a red state governor's rebellion vis-a-vis the national guards?

I know. Can't happen here. I had to unload some of this stuff. You just happened to be there, sorry.

It will be much harder for him to contest the election than if Harris just squeaks in a win.

unchecked retribution of anyone he considers his political enemies, and chaos from day one of his administration.

Gee, who could have seen that he'd even get this far along, if not for spineless GOP officials who find such prospects appealing.

Fuck DonOld tRump!!!

Last edited Thu Oct 31, 2024, 12:04 PM - Edit history (1)

Enthusiasm gap in our favor. Polls of people who have voted coming in heavy for Harris with significant GOP defections to vote for her. There's a lot to like.

MI and WI seemed to have been put more safely in her column lately. I feel like NV and AZ are going Harris due to the abortion ballot initiatives. Those 2 break for her and it doesn't matter what happens in PA, but I think she's probably ahead there too, especially after the Puerto Rico and racism fiasco for Trump last weekend. NC is also really close.

I know there's always an effort to temper expectations so people will stay motivated to vote and work hard, that point has passed, the people who are working will continue to work the next 5 days. Perhaps more than 100 million people will have voted by this weekend. What is going to happen is going to happen.

"...Pools of people...have voted (early) coming in heavy for Harris with significant GOP defections..."

Yep, that's it in nutshell: In addition to the gender gap Trump developed by killing off Roe v. Wade, there is also what I've been calling the non-MAGA Republican vote. Their patron martyr Thomas Michael Crooks set them free to justify differentiating between being GOP and being MAGA.


Rocknation

“…the turnout and enthusiasm numbers aren’t where they need to be.”

“Turnout” being the killer word in that line. Republicans HATE a high turnout. Because they KNOW a high turnout favors Democrats.

their real door knockers r prolly singing a song of woe. and they know a lot of their door knockers arent even bothering. eloon’s slave labor is spoofing their apps.

regardless of the polls, they know their ground game sucks.

"Republican strategist Margaret Hoover said Republicans have told her that campaign aides for former President Donald Trump have “concern” over internal polling" -- what's with the THIRD-hand information? Is this CNN's idea of "sources?"


Rocknation

The future of our nation will be decided in 5 days.

At least.

The obvious and in some places, growing gender gap. We know about the ones in the swing states, but check out Louisiana's.

Louisiana has a 15% gender gap in early voting, Women: 57.3%, Men: 42.6% as of yesterday's report. If other red states (Florida, Texas) that do not report voting by gender have similar gaps, the Convicted Felon and potentially down ballot races are in serious trouble.

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-louisiana/

Too bad more states don't give details on the Gender in their Reporting.
Georgia - 12.0 points
Michigan - 10.8 points
N. Carolina - 10.4 points

PA doesn't give details on gender but they do report out party registration. At this point Dems are 56.5% of their EV and Republicans are 32.6%. That's a whopping 24% lead. Indies and other are 10.9%

For comparison the gender gap for the 2020 election was 4 points with a 52% Women and 48% Male split. I bet women will raise the gender gap to 10% or more in the 2024 race. None of the polls factor in a huge women turn-out in their "likely voter" metrics. Right wing pollsters will probably be more reasonable in their polls this week so they don't look like idiots when Trump loses.

Registered Republicans come forward to officially say they are voting for Harris. They plainly say they do not agree with her on every topic but compared with what tRump has promised, they must go with Harris. If the vocal ones are coming forward every day, imagine how many are out there without a platform who fully intend to vote Harris/Walz. Let’s just send up a wish that they vote a straight democratic ticket.

All the handwringing is driving me bonkers, so I’m trying to ignore the nervous Nellys. The truth is there are lots of signals that tRump’s reign of terror is ending. Not to say he won’t writhe and wail for weeks or months. But come Jan. 2025, Kamala Harris will step into the White House, no matter if tRump melts down like the Wicked Witch of the West. Isn’t that a happy image to contemplate?! 😃

They are helping to keep him out of prison.

That they are polling as well as they are is testament to the misogyny and racism that continues to divide our country over the grievances of white men.

as Trump's now inevitable (and probably sizable) defeat are forcing them to cover their asses by beginning to double down and lower their own expectations.


Rocknation

YEH!

was Rosy Perez and Victor Martinez on Nicole's show saying Puerto Ricans that were going to vote for Trump, are not going to after the Madison Square Garden hate fest. They also said there are rallies to get the Puerto Rican communities to vote in high numbers. They are hoping to get enough of them living in Orlando to help offset the Cuban vote for Trump in Miami.

But they love power too much.

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