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BumRushDaShow

(144,196 posts)
Sat Dec 7, 2024, 03:58 PM Dec 7

Assad regime in Syria may fall in days, US increasingly believes

Source: CNN Politics

Updated 2:35 PM EST, Sat December 7, 2024


CNN — Biden administration officials, watching the remarkable speed of the Syrian rebel advance, increasingly see the possibility of the regime of Bashar al-Assad falling within days, five US officials told CNN. If the American analysis proves true, it would represent a spectacularly fast fall from power for the Syrian dictator after a 14-year war, one that had been relatively stagnant until just last week.

Officials cautioned that a formal assessment on Assad’s fate hasn’t emerged and that views vary, saying his demise isn’t a forgone conclusion. “The emerging consensus is that is an increasingly plausible scenario,” one senior US official said. “Probably by next weekend the Assad regime will have lost any semblance of power,” another official said.

“Only thing that would delay a rebel conquest would be a well-organized coup and reorganization, but Assad’s folks have done a good job of stifling any potential competitors,” the official added. Another source familiar with US intelligence about the developments noted that so far, the opposition has made progress because regime forces have largely not stayed in the fight.

But the areas the opposition forces have advanced the most — Aleppo, Idlib and Hama — also are not flush with regime support, so they encountered less resistance, this person said. “The question is whether regime forces actually stand their ground when it comes to Damascus,” they added.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/07/politics/assad-regime-syrian-civil-war/index.html

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erronis

(17,176 posts)
1. Doubt putin can divert too many resources to prop up his friend assad (a stalin-esque figure.)
Sat Dec 7, 2024, 04:03 PM
Dec 7

Of course the US (at least current administration) is probably not really happy about having these ISIS/AQ groups running around committing mayhem.

Prairie Gates

(3,568 posts)
2. Assad is gonna get set up a nice villa in Tehran or Qom
Sat Dec 7, 2024, 06:23 PM
Dec 7

He'll be killed by the Revolutionary Guard within 18 months.

tornado34jh

(1,311 posts)
3. I could see the Syrian regime going down, but the issue I have is with one of the groups leading the opposition
Sat Dec 7, 2024, 08:32 PM
Dec 7

The main group is HTS, or Tahrir-al-Sham. It is an Islamist militant group led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani. If Assad goes down, who is going to fill the power vacuum? Is it going to be HTS? We had the same issue when Gaddafi fell in Libya in 2011. While I definitely want the regime of Assad to go down, which groups will fill that void, and will those groups be a good thing?

toesonthenose

(179 posts)
5. There will be a multitude of groups fighting for power.
Sat Dec 7, 2024, 10:40 PM
Dec 7

The Sunni opposition groups were aligned as far as getting rid of the Assad regime, but that is where it ends. They aren't terribly aligned as one may think outside of that main shared objective. Not that things have been great, but it is going to get pretty ugly.

tornado34jh

(1,311 posts)
8. When the Arab Spring occurred, on paper it sounded good. However, it actually ended up doing worse
Sun Dec 8, 2024, 02:19 AM
Dec 8

Most of the people of North Africa and the Middle East have no idea how democracy works. Figure most of these people have been in a dictatorship of some fashion for decades.

Polybius

(18,360 posts)
6. I'd much rather have Assad than sick, twisted jihadists
Sat Dec 7, 2024, 11:06 PM
Dec 7

As bad as he is, he's not a religious extremist. He tolerates the Christians. Isis doesn't.

tornado34jh

(1,311 posts)
9. When I was in Europe in 2009-2011, the war in Libya was going on
Sun Dec 8, 2024, 02:25 AM
Dec 8

There were a lot of Libyan migrants coming in during the war and after Gaddafi fell. I remember in Madrid once I saw several protests in regards to wanting to overthrow Gaddafi. While I have not heard much recently from there, as far as I know, I don't think it is going well post-Gaddafi. The problem is, it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't. Assuming that Assad falls, which as far as I have heard he has now fled the country, who will fill that power vacuum?

Polybius

(18,360 posts)
10. Whoever fills it in will be a religious extremist with no tolerance for women or other religions
Sun Dec 8, 2024, 12:53 PM
Dec 8

As bad as Assad and Saddam Hussein were (and probably Gaddafi too), they did not go out of their way to persecute Christians. Assad visited a church that was bombed by rebels, and Saddam's own Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz was a Christian.

angrychair

(9,889 posts)
7. Saw something on Bluesky
Sat Dec 7, 2024, 11:13 PM
Dec 7

That radar appeared to show a flight with him aboard divert from heading towards Iran and then disappear from radar outside of Homs
https://bsky.app/profile/youranoncentral.bsky.social/post/3lcrbxysl6k25

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