I do think the EU held Obama back from more forcefully calling BS on Putin and the Crimean grab in 2014 so that they need to now finally step up in a real way is just desserts. But whether it is later grabs into Ukraine or a redirect of hostility to the Baltic States or elsewhere when Putin has had time to reconstitute his forces and retrain for the new realities of modern warfare, it is highly likely. If Trump drops or weakens sanctions on Russia, that will only serve to move up the risk timetable.

The lines in Donetsk and Luhansk have not moved in Ukraine's direction in 2 years. Just a slow grinding advance by Russia at incalculable cost to lives, infrastructure and property. Crimea is a far-off dream at this point. Ukraine can't even get across the Dneiper.

Ukraine just doesn't have the manpower. No Navy, barely any Air Force, and now MFer is going to cut them off from artillery. It would take years and years. They're going to have to cede territory for any kind of settlement.

The key is escaping Russia's sphere of influence. If not NATO, they need EU membership at the end of this.

Moldova has to watch its ass before the Baltics. Russia's already occupying Transnistria.

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