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BumRushDaShow

(165,658 posts)
Fri Mar 21, 2025, 03:05 PM Mar 2025

Democrats raise millions for Florida special elections in Trump territory

Source: NBC News

March 21, 2025, 10:45 AM EDT


The Democrats running in a pair of April 1 special elections for deeply Republican House districts in Florida have raised a whopping $15.7 million combined in two months, but they still face steep uphill climbs in the upcoming campaigns.

Gay Valimont, a gun control activist who is running in Florida’s 1st Congressional District, raised nearly $6.4 million from Jan. 9 to March 12, five times more than Republican Jimmy Patronis, Florida's chief financial officer, according to new fundraising reports filed Thursday with the Federal Election Commission. And Josh Weil, a teacher running in the 6th District, raised $9.3 million, a haul more than 16 times larger than Republican state Sen. Randy Fine.

The massive sums suggest the energy among grassroots Democratic donors has not dissipated with President Donald Trump back in the Oval Office — 75% of both Valimont and Weil’s hauls were from donations of $200 or less. But while the candidates' fundraising is strong, the underlying political math of the districts is extremely GOP-friendly.

Trump carried the 1st District on the Florida Panhandle by 37 percentage points in November, winning 68% of the vote, according to election results data from NBC News’ Decision Desk. And he won the 6th District by 30 points, winning 65% of the vote.

Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-raise-millions-florida-special-elections-trump-territory-rcna197311



Longshot but might be a good indication where things stand this early in the administration.
35 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Democrats raise millions for Florida special elections in Trump territory (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Mar 2025 OP
Waste of money SSJVegeta Mar 2025 #1
It's never a waste of money to try radical noodle Mar 2025 #3
True SSJVegeta Mar 2025 #6
I agree totally radical noodle Mar 2025 #11
I live in Josh Weil's district radical noodle Mar 2025 #2
Hoping for the best BumRushDaShow Mar 2025 #4
Didnt he put out a press release calling for Weils arrest because some 1099 contractor stole a bike? SSJVegeta Mar 2025 #7
Here's the story radical noodle Mar 2025 #10
Have you seen where his fundraising numbers are at by chance? SSJVegeta Mar 2025 #12
Randy fines fundraising SSJVegeta Mar 2025 #13
Thanks! I can't believe this district is drawing so much money radical noodle Mar 2025 #17
What does the volunteer activity and ads look like in the district? SSJVegeta Mar 2025 #14
His ads are good. He's a teacher and he's promoting that radical noodle Mar 2025 #18
Lots of YouTube Ads too SuzannaD Mar 2025 #21
Great! radical noodle Mar 2025 #22
Sounds good! Are you guys being flooded by superpac ads? SSJVegeta Mar 2025 #23
I've seen more Weil ads than Fine radical noodle Mar 2025 #24
Thanks for the info! SSJVegeta Mar 2025 #25
Huge longshot mcar Mar 2025 #5
Jimmy Patronis is a dick. He doesn't live in that district. Phoenix61 Mar 2025 #8
Hope that gets highlighted BumRushDaShow Mar 2025 #9
If I remember correctly GoreWon2000 Mar 2025 #33
Yes it is. nt Phoenix61 Mar 2025 #34
The hurricanes are getting even GoreWon2000 Mar 2025 #35
Florida is not to be trusted. AmericaUnderSiege Mar 2025 #15
I totally agree GoreWon2000 Mar 2025 #32
I think it might be worth a different tactic Scalded Nun Mar 2025 #16
I mean going in and outraising and outspending the republican 10-1 while garnering strong national attention SSJVegeta Mar 2025 #26
A lot of the MAGA low information voters... Old Testament Libera Mar 2025 #19
As long as people are aware ibegurpard Mar 2025 #20
The money needs to be used to reach those people that did not vote Mysterian Mar 2025 #27
Gay Valimont polling jmbar2 Mar 2025 #28
Josh Weill poll numbers (CD6) jmbar2 Mar 2025 #29
Not a poll but BumRushDaShow Mar 2025 #30
tRump revoking immigration status GoreWon2000 Mar 2025 #31

SSJVegeta

(2,276 posts)
6. True
Fri Mar 21, 2025, 05:29 PM
Mar 2025

Of course I think the thing that pisses me off the most about this, is how they need to raise this amount of money just to get noticed. Our system of money in politics is really messed up!

radical noodle

(10,482 posts)
11. I agree totally
Fri Mar 21, 2025, 07:17 PM
Mar 2025

I don't know how it will happen, but we have to get money out of politics.

radical noodle

(10,482 posts)
2. I live in Josh Weil's district
Fri Mar 21, 2025, 05:09 PM
Mar 2025

Randy Fine is scared he's going to lose so has been making up a lot of negative crap about Weil. There are problems of course. Some people still don't know about the April 1st election, but there there have been campaigns targeting Democrats to remind them to vote. There are way more Weil signs out than I ever saw for Kamala last fall. I think Weil may have a chance. Don't know about Gay Valimont since I'm not in her district. I do see ads for both of them on TV, which is very encouraging.

BumRushDaShow

(165,658 posts)
4. Hoping for the best
Fri Mar 21, 2025, 05:12 PM
Mar 2025

I think with all the election scheduling by DeSatan happening back in January, so much has gone on since that I can see how people would have forgotten - especially with Gaetz generally not bopping around in the media to remind them.

SSJVegeta

(2,276 posts)
7. Didnt he put out a press release calling for Weils arrest because some 1099 contractor stole a bike?
Fri Mar 21, 2025, 05:30 PM
Mar 2025

That does make me think, mayyyybe there's a chance 🤔

But also:

radical noodle

(10,482 posts)
17. Thanks! I can't believe this district is drawing so much money
Fri Mar 21, 2025, 11:06 PM
Mar 2025

but it is critical that we do the best we can. I hope that the passion for trump has cooled just enough to keep some Republicans home on election day. Looking at votes from the primary shows way more Republican voters came out than Democrats. But that was held just days after trump was inaugurated. I'm not confident there's a chance but I have a crazy sort of hope.

SSJVegeta

(2,276 posts)
14. What does the volunteer activity and ads look like in the district?
Fri Mar 21, 2025, 08:17 PM
Mar 2025

Last edited Fri Mar 21, 2025, 09:34 PM - Edit history (1)

radical noodle

(10,482 posts)
18. His ads are good. He's a teacher and he's promoting that
Fri Mar 21, 2025, 11:20 PM
Mar 2025

I mentioned that I've seen TV ads that were well done and he has a lot of ads on Facebook. I don't do a lot of social media, so I don't know about twitter or bluesky.

Postcards have been sent to many Democrats reminding them to vote. And Josh has sent Thank you postcards to everyone who has donated money to him (at least we got one, so I assume that everyone did), which is something I've never had from any politician before.

There are a lot of Josh Weil signs in high traffic areas. Some volunteers are going around to the homes of Democrats asking for their votes and leaving flyers for him. I really don't know what else could be done.

SuzannaD

(12 posts)
21. Lots of YouTube Ads too
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 07:25 AM
Mar 2025

I must have seen at least 10 different ones. They're good too. They make Fine look vicious and unplugged, while Weil is smiling and friendly.

SSJVegeta

(2,276 posts)
23. Sounds good! Are you guys being flooded by superpac ads?
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 09:00 AM
Mar 2025

Do the political ads on TV appear to be more llsupportive of Weil, fine or equal?

radical noodle

(10,482 posts)
24. I've seen more Weil ads than Fine
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 09:04 AM
Mar 2025

Fine sends out those little plastic coated flyers in the mail that accuse Weil of all sorts of things, but doesn't seem to have nearly so many TV ads. It may depend on what channel one is watching. I don't watch Fox.

SSJVegeta

(2,276 posts)
25. Thanks for the info!
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 09:24 AM
Mar 2025

Yeah perhaps there are more 501C ads on Fox since it can be assumed it'll target a substantial portion of the district.

Phoenix61

(18,702 posts)
8. Jimmy Patronis is a dick. He doesn't live in that district.
Fri Mar 21, 2025, 06:58 PM
Mar 2025

I can only guess he’s ghosting. He lives in Bay county. I hope he gets his ass kicked.

 

GoreWon2000

(1,461 posts)
33. If I remember correctly
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 01:56 PM
Mar 2025

Florida CD1 years ago was help by the great dem Dante Fascell who I had the honor of meeting during my Fla. political days. Bay county is in the panhandle part of Florida.

 

GoreWon2000

(1,461 posts)
35. The hurricanes are getting even
Sun Mar 23, 2025, 11:26 PM
Mar 2025

I can't help but notice that since 2000, most of the hurricane damage has been in the repug counties in Florida. I used to enjoy Rep. Fascelll's Labor Day picnic. That was always the start of campaign season. If you were anywhere in the Miami-Sade county Dem party universe, you were at that picnic. I went many times.

 

AmericaUnderSiege

(777 posts)
15. Florida is not to be trusted.
Fri Mar 21, 2025, 10:44 PM
Mar 2025

We had Alan Grayson a while back. He was betrayed. And Al Gore won there in 2000, but they just rigged it.

Don't fight in a swamp unless your goal is to drown.

 

GoreWon2000

(1,461 posts)
32. I totally agree
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 01:52 PM
Mar 2025

15 of my 24 years spent working on dem election campaigns was in Florida working under the Florida election laws that the Bush brothers and the Rehnquist 5 shredded in 2000.

Scalded Nun

(1,605 posts)
16. I think it might be worth a different tactic
Fri Mar 21, 2025, 11:00 PM
Mar 2025

1. Go into those strong red districts.
2. State that you know that you are not their favorite politician, but that no one but the Democrats is going to be able to stop this war on people, and that includes the war on those people who vote for them. That will not be hard to sell given that there are new horrors being unleashed upon Americans on a daily basis.
3. Further state that if they do not like the job Democrats do in trying to save this country, then they can vote them back out in 2 years. I know I'd hire a Temp is I thought they were going to save my company.
4. I strongly believe this can be done. I could be completely wrong, but I remain optimistic, even in these dark days.

SSJVegeta

(2,276 posts)
26. I mean going in and outraising and outspending the republican 10-1 while garnering strong national attention
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 09:26 AM
Mar 2025

...might not be the worst strategy either

19. A lot of the MAGA low information voters...
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 01:05 AM
Mar 2025

...will not bother to vote in an election where Trump isn't on the ballot. Especially if they know friends or family who have been hurt by Musk's antics. It's worth a try. If the Democrats even come close it may scare some of the spineless Repugs in Congress into not being quite as spineless and possibly opposing some of Trump's idiocy. I gave them both some money.

ibegurpard

(17,074 posts)
20. As long as people are aware
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 02:21 AM
Mar 2025

That neither of these districts is likely to flip and they view sending money as an investment for future growth in areas like this then I say go for it!

Mysterian

(6,169 posts)
27. The money needs to be used to reach those people that did not vote
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 09:26 AM
Mar 2025

and get their asses to the polls to vote Democratic.

jmbar2

(7,611 posts)
28. Gay Valimont polling
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 10:06 AM
Mar 2025

Gay Valimont has the steepest hill to climb. However...

There may be some early signs that Patronis has a close race on his hands. Early turnout data from the four counties that comprise District 1 show Republicans with only a 4.9-point advantage with mail-in ballots.

As of Thursday, the supervisors of elections offices in the four counties of Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton reported approximately 19,213 ballots returned. Of those ballots, 45.91% were from registered Republicans, 41.02% were from registered Democrats, 11.54% were from non-party affiliated voters, and 1.53% were from other minor parties.


There’s no doubt that Northwest Florida is a solid red Republican district where Republicans enjoy a nearly 3-to-1 voter registration advantage over Democrats.

In the 2024 election, Valimont lost to Gaetz by 32 percentage points. That election came in the wake of the scandal Gaetz faced for allegations of sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, and Gaetz still won 66% of the vote.


What remains to be seen is how Trump’s policies are playing in Northwest Florida. The district has the highest number of federal workers in Florida thanks to the area’s large military presence. The district has nearly 20,000 federal workers, which is about 5.6% of the district’s entire workforce, according to data from the Congressional Research Service.


https://www.pnj.com/story/news/politics/elections/2025/03/21/special-election-florida-first-congressional-district-set-for-april-1/82501774007/

jmbar2

(7,611 posts)
29. Josh Weill poll numbers (CD6)
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 10:16 AM
Mar 2025

Can't find much data - maybe others have info?

“Weil will be among the longest of longshots in a district that was 49% Republican and 26% Democrat going into the Nov. 5 election. Donald Trump won with more than 60% in each of the six counties that make up the 6th District.”


https://www.news-journalonline.com/story/news/2025/03/20/who-randy-fine-josh-weil-florida-election-when-what-counties-sixth-district/82537989007/

BumRushDaShow

(165,658 posts)
30. Not a poll but
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 10:53 AM
Mar 2025

from here - https://floridapolitics.com/archives/727090-josh-weil-shocks-by-raising-more-than-10m-for-cd-6-special-election/

In the CD 6 Special Election, Libertarian Andrew Parrott and independent Randall Terry will also both appear on the ballot, as will a line for a write-in candidate. Likewise, independent Stephen Brody will appear on the CD 1 ballot, and voters can vote for write-in candidates there as well.


There will be a Libertarian appearing on that ballot along with an Indie. The Libertarian could pull votes from the Republican, but Democrats would need to have a big turnout (and there wasn't much during the primary in January) and get a huge chunk of non-affiliateds to make a dent.
 

GoreWon2000

(1,461 posts)
31. tRump revoking immigration status
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 01:49 PM
Mar 2025

for Cubans won't sit well with Cuban Americans who typically vote repug. Hopefully this will also mobilize the Haitian American and Venezuelan American communities in these districts to get out and vote because tRump is also revoking their immigration status as well.

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