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BumRushDaShow

(165,153 posts)
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 07:47 AM Apr 2025

Conservative Think Tank Reveals the Massive 'Error' in Trump's Tariff Formula

Source: Daily Beast

Updated Apr. 6 2025 10:27PM EDT
Published Apr. 6 2025 6:23PM EDT


The math in President Donald Trump’s tariff formula isn’t adding up—and even conservatives are confused. The American Enterprise Institute, a prominent conservative Washington think tank, said the Trump administration appears to have missed a crucial distinction made in a 2021 paper cited as one of the bases of its tariff formula, causing the final levies to be about four times higher than what they should have been.

“The formula for the tariffs… does not make economic sense,” AEI senior fellows Kevin Corinth and Stan Veuger wrote. “But even if one were to take the Trump Administration’s tariff formula seriously, it makes an error that inflates the tariffs assumed to be levied by foreign countries four-fold.”

Under the Trump administration’s formula, the reciprocal tariff is equal to the U.S. trade deficit divided by U.S. imports from a given country, divided by two. One variable in the formula relates to the “elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs” and was assigned a value of 0.25.

AEI said, however, that this value should have actually been 0.945. “Their mistake is that they base the elasticity on the response of retail prices to tariffs, as opposed to import prices as they should have done,” the think tank said. “The article they cite by Alberto Cavallo and his coauthors makes this distinction clear.”

Read more: https://www.thedailybeast.com/conservative-think-tank-reveals-the-massive-error-in-trumps-tariff-formula/

38 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Conservative Think Tank Reveals the Massive 'Error' in Trump's Tariff Formula (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Apr 2025 OP
On the bright side, this won't interfere with Krasnov's gourmet golfing BoRaGard Apr 2025 #1
Bad math huh? This POS's entire business was found to be a fraud underpants Apr 2025 #2
I wish a Conservative think tank would reveal a "massive error" in the 2024 election vote count. sop Apr 2025 #3
They needed a think tank to figure that out? It was obvious from his little chart he used to justify this. Scrivener7 Apr 2025 #4
There are reasons MLWR Apr 2025 #5
P.O.S. BattleRow Apr 2025 #14
This is just billionaires trying to give Trump a way to save face. Bluetus Apr 2025 #23
They can't even lie well. mwb970 Apr 2025 #6
Here's an "explanation " central scrutinizer Apr 2025 #7
"Reality is what we make it" not fooled Apr 2025 #21
Super geniuses don't have time for your formulas or calculations, IronLionZion Apr 2025 #8
Sadly ... Ligyron Apr 2025 #9
ron vara agrees nt et tu Apr 2025 #16
I want to see Ron Vara and Peter Navarro discuss it together IronLionZion Apr 2025 #20
priceless et tu Apr 2025 #22
Wish I had thought of this mdbl Apr 2025 #36
" I remember old Ron Vara"! bagimin Apr 2025 #32
Winning like that super genius RazorbackExpat Apr 2025 #18
Oxymoron alert. Conservative think tank. twodogsbarking Apr 2025 #10
Calculations that factor penguins superiority RainCaster Apr 2025 #11
penguin party has a majority lol et tu Apr 2025 #17
Evil morons. yardwork Apr 2025 #12
There's a much bigger error underlying the entire premise of basing tarrifs on trade deficits William Seger Apr 2025 #13
John Oliver explains trump's tariff formula LetMyPeopleVote Apr 2025 #15
Trump, and Republicans, just make up their own facts. They don't like reality because it doesn't support their idiocy. Lonestarblue Apr 2025 #19
The error was in leving tariff's in the first place. patphil Apr 2025 #24
They don't make economic sense because they aren't about economics. They are about control. Pacifist Patriot Apr 2025 #25
Conservative Drunk Tank, more likely. Aristus Apr 2025 #26
Seriously? RobinA Apr 2025 #27
All the best and the brightest at Trump Central. nt Exp Apr 2025 #28
He's following a book written by Peter Navarro about tariffs mdbl Apr 2025 #29
Oops somebody doesn't want to get blamed for the mess they made Clouds Passing Apr 2025 #30
Tariff tiff not a Gordcanuck Apr 2025 #31
So how much should the tariff on the Heard and McDonald Islands be? tclambert Apr 2025 #33
Tariff tiff not a Gordcanuck Apr 2025 #34
Or lawyers and judges...such wishy-washy law. travelingthrulife Apr 2025 #38
Really? Republicans aren't good at math? Who knew? louis-t Apr 2025 #35
How cute. AEI is pretending it is an error. Pretending that they didn't maliciously travelingthrulife Apr 2025 #37

BoRaGard

(7,591 posts)
1. On the bright side, this won't interfere with Krasnov's gourmet golfing
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 07:50 AM
Apr 2025

at taxpayer expense...

underpants

(194,584 posts)
2. Bad math huh? This POS's entire business was found to be a fraud
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 07:53 AM
Apr 2025

systematic cooking of the books.

He also self appraises his wealth due to how he “feels” his properties are with in a given day.

sop

(17,280 posts)
3. I wish a Conservative think tank would reveal a "massive error" in the 2024 election vote count.
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 07:56 AM
Apr 2025

Scrivener7

(58,138 posts)
4. They needed a think tank to figure that out? It was obvious from his little chart he used to justify this.
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 07:59 AM
Apr 2025

I saw it immediately. And I'm no think tank.

Bluetus

(2,188 posts)
23. This is just billionaires trying to give Trump a way to save face.
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 10:28 AM
Apr 2025

It has nothing to do with any billshit coefficients pulled out of thin air. They are saying, "OK Trump, you can do your tariff thing at 25% of the level you announced. You can claim victory as the master negotiator, and we won't criticize the drastically scaled-back tariff levels."

not fooled

(6,590 posts)
21. "Reality is what we make it"
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 10:22 AM
Apr 2025

paraphrased from one of the loons in chimpy's reign.

We don't need your stinkin' numbers, or facts.

IronLionZion

(50,728 posts)
8. Super geniuses don't have time for your formulas or calculations,
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 08:59 AM
Apr 2025

they are too busy winning. Bigly

William Seger

(12,166 posts)
13. There's a much bigger error underlying the entire premise of basing tarrifs on trade deficits
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 09:34 AM
Apr 2025

His MAGAsty King Dunning-Kruger thinks trade deficits mean other countries are cheating us.

LetMyPeopleVote

(174,270 posts)
15. John Oliver explains trump's tariff formula
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 09:53 AM
Apr 2025


John Oliver: "[Trump's chart] features an estimate of 'Tariffs Charged to the USA' by other countries that nobody could figure out, until a financial journalist realized it was just how much we export to that country, minus how much we import, divided by how much we import."

Lonestarblue

(13,195 posts)
19. Trump, and Republicans, just make up their own facts. They don't like reality because it doesn't support their idiocy.
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 10:14 AM
Apr 2025

patphil

(8,670 posts)
24. The error was in leving tariff's in the first place.
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 10:31 AM
Apr 2025

You encourage US industrial growth by investment and tax incentives. It's a long, slow process that works without disrupting the economy. President Biden knew this.
Trump isn't interested in economic growth. His tariffs are purely there to make money to cover the huge tax break he is planning to give the ultra rich.
Crashing the economy is simply a secondary benefit from his point of view. As he said while the stock market is crashing, now is the time to get rich. He is saying that there will be bargains to be had...cheap stocks that will eventually bounce back when all those new manufacturing job are created.
The question is, where will all the new investment come from? Who's going to risk all those billions it will take to build the factories, and where will the employees come from?



Pacifist Patriot

(25,186 posts)
25. They don't make economic sense because they aren't about economics. They are about control.
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 10:33 AM
Apr 2025

It's straight out of "Dictators for Dummies."

Aristus

(71,536 posts)
26. Conservative Drunk Tank, more likely.
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 10:34 AM
Apr 2025

How could these assholes not know that Trump doesn't have the faintest idea what he is doing?

RobinA

(10,464 posts)
27. Seriously?
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 11:00 AM
Apr 2025

"The math in President Donald Trump’s tariff formula isn’t adding up—and even conservatives are confused."

Do they still think anything about this moron "adds up?" It's like no one anywhere near to power right now can come to grips with the fact that that the President and his appointees don't have a clue what they're doing. Nothing will get better until they get over this delusion that the President MUST be doing things that add up, because....well, he's the President. Read the writing on the wall, so-called leaders. Face reality now, before you confuse us right off the cliff. There is no excuse.

mdbl

(8,016 posts)
29. He's following a book written by Peter Navarro about tariffs
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 11:34 AM
Apr 2025

that sites a fake economist. What do you expect will happen?

Gordcanuck

(148 posts)
31. Tariff tiff not a
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 12:18 PM
Apr 2025

calculation error, it’s just another way to waffle the reality. It reminds me of the trope, “if all the world’s economists were laid out end to end they still wouldn’t reach a conclusion.”

tclambert

(11,187 posts)
33. So how much should the tariff on the Heard and McDonald Islands be?
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 01:52 PM
Apr 2025

Asking for a friend who likes to wear a tuxedo.

Gordcanuck

(148 posts)
34. Tariff tiff not a
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 02:45 PM
Apr 2025

calculation error, it’s just another way to waffle the reality. It reminds me of the trope, “if all the world’s economists were laid out end to end they still wouldn’t reach a conclusion.”

louis-t

(24,566 posts)
35. Really? Republicans aren't good at math? Who knew?
Mon Apr 7, 2025, 05:29 PM
Apr 2025

Peter Navarro, the Harvard educated 'economist', threw out everything he learned in college and decided he knew better than every other economist in the world. He often quotes one of his economic mentors (himself) Ron Vara.

travelingthrulife

(4,305 posts)
37. How cute. AEI is pretending it is an error. Pretending that they didn't maliciously
Tue Apr 8, 2025, 09:05 AM
Apr 2025

increase other countries tariffs against us by four-fold to allow us to jack up the tax 'we the people' have to pay.

Isn't that how your glorious tax break gets paid for?

This is your monster AEI. Enjoy!

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