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BumRushDaShow

(167,039 posts)
Wed Feb 4, 2026, 08:19 AM Yesterday

Private payrolls rose by just 22,000 in January, far short of expectations, ADP says

Source: CNBC

Published Wed, Feb 4 2026 8:15 AM EST Updated 1 Min Ago


The U.S. labor market barely budged in January, with hiring below even muted expectations, according a report Wednesday from payrolls processing firm ADP.

Private companies added just 22,000 positions for the month and the number would have been negative had it not been for a surge of 74,000 hires in the education and health services category. The total was less than the downwardly revised 37,000 increase in December and below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 45,000.

The report starts 2026 off on basically the same note where 2025 ended: A lackluster job market in a low-hire, low-fire environment that likely will do little to quell fears from Federal Reserve policymakers that more support may be needed.

Outside of the health care-related jobs, the primary driver behind employment growth last year, financial activities added 14,000 positions while construction rose by 9,000 and both the trade, transportation and utilities and the leisure and hospitality industries contributed 4,000. However, several sectors reported losses.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/04/adp-jobs-report-january-2026.html



Since the government (BLS) is delaying this Friday's Unemployment report, the 3rd party ADP report (done monthly ahead of the government's) is about all we'll be getting as an indicator (and it only reports on the "private sector" jobs, not government, etc).
16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Private payrolls rose by just 22,000 in January, far short of expectations, ADP says (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Yesterday OP
ICE hires. twodogsbarking Yesterday #1
Those wouldn't be reflected in that report BumRushDaShow Yesterday #2
yeah twodogsbarking Yesterday #3
Will be interesting to see the next "JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey" ) from BLS BumRushDaShow Yesterday #4
Can it be trusted in the Trump era? rurallib 23 hrs ago #6
Amazing how disengaged the stock market is from the Economy edhopper 23 hrs ago #5
It is what the ruling class wants apparently hibbing 19 hrs ago #9
Its a bubble edhopper 19 hrs ago #11
it's almost like it was tailor-made for.....rich people Skittles 18 hrs ago #13
From the source: progree 22 hrs ago #7
k and r riversedge 21 hrs ago #8
Who are you going to believe? Moostache 19 hrs ago #10
260million+ US citizens over 18 years old and these anemic employment reports dont increase the unemployment rate? NoMoreRepugs 19 hrs ago #12
Joe's numbers for January 2023 were smoking mahina 17 hrs ago #14
Seasonal adjustment turned a 2.171 Million job loss into a 22,000 gain. progree 16 hrs ago #15
Labor Department announces jobs report release date after shutdown delay progree 15 hrs ago #16

BumRushDaShow

(167,039 posts)
2. Those wouldn't be reflected in that report
Wed Feb 4, 2026, 08:54 AM
Yesterday

since they cover a narrow category of job categories that are "non-government", i.e., those in the "private sector"

BumRushDaShow

(167,039 posts)
4. Will be interesting to see the next "JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey" ) from BLS
Wed Feb 4, 2026, 09:04 AM
Yesterday

in a couple weeks - https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

That might show the huge ICE recruitment stuff (and ignore all the deferred government retirements and continued layoffs).

edhopper

(37,166 posts)
5. Amazing how disengaged the stock market is from the Economy
Wed Feb 4, 2026, 10:47 AM
23 hrs ago

Jobs, the Dollar, Interest Rates, all show a decline.

hibbing

(10,543 posts)
9. It is what the ruling class wants apparently
Wed Feb 4, 2026, 02:25 PM
19 hrs ago

I'm fortunate enough to have had a long working career with matching 401 and all that jazz. I am shocked at how much my account has gone up the last year. Some of the fuel seems to be the Ai stuff, but still strange.

Peace

edhopper

(37,166 posts)
11. Its a bubble
Wed Feb 4, 2026, 02:46 PM
19 hrs ago

expect a big correction/crash
Consider moving money out of stocks and into fixed income.
You might miss some run up, but avoid a big decline.

progree

(12,801 posts)
7. From the source:
Wed Feb 4, 2026, 12:04 PM
22 hrs ago

From the source: https://adpemploymentreport.com/

Click on "Technical Notes" to expand it

Yes, they are seasonally adjusted. I don't have time to look right now if I've found their not-seasonally-adjusted numbers before, presumably would be a big loss for January. If I found them, it was probably at FRED.

Edited to add: I found the FRED series on not-seasonally-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted
Seasonal adjustment turned a 2.171 Million job loss into a 22,000 gain (see #15 below) (/END EDIT)

As BRDS (and the link) says this is private sector payrolls, so government employees are not counted in this.

Private employers added 22,000 jobs in January
. . .
The ADP National Employment Report is an independent and high-frequency view of the private-sector labor market based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 26 million U.S. employees.


The other about 80% of the private sector workforce are estimated.

Moostache

(11,094 posts)
10. Who are you going to believe?
Wed Feb 4, 2026, 02:30 PM
19 hrs ago

The fat-ass orange menace or your own rumbling stomach after you could not afford $12.99/lb beef?

NoMoreRepugs

(11,871 posts)
12. 260million+ US citizens over 18 years old and these anemic employment reports dont increase the unemployment rate?
Wed Feb 4, 2026, 03:00 PM
19 hrs ago

From the Bureau of Labor statistics when I inquired on the Biden employment picture -

"16 million jobs created under the Biden-Harris administration. While job growth came in below expectations, with an average of 170,000 jobs added per month over the last three months, the American economy is still the envy of the world. ..."

mahina

(20,514 posts)
14. Joe's numbers for January 2023 were smoking
Wed Feb 4, 2026, 04:44 PM
17 hrs ago

How many jobs were added in
January 2023?
517,000
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January 2023. Job growth was widespread in January, led by gains in leisure and
hospitality (+128,000), professional and business services (+82,000), and health care (+58,000).
# https://www.bls.gov
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517000 in January 2023

progree

(12,801 posts)
15. Seasonal adjustment turned a 2.171 Million job loss into a 22,000 gain.
Wed Feb 4, 2026, 06:07 PM
16 hrs ago

Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ADPMNUSNERNSA
November:135,472,000
December: 134,779,000
January: 132,608,000
DECREASE Dec. to Jan.: 2,171,000

Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ADPMNUSNERSA
November: 132,222,000
December: 132,259,000
January: 132,281,000
Increase Dec. to Jan: 22,000
(as reported in media articles and https://adpemploymentreport.com/ )

Interesting.

Several FRED series on ADP data - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/32250

progree

(12,801 posts)
16. Labor Department announces jobs report release date after shutdown delay
Wed Feb 4, 2026, 06:40 PM
15 hrs ago

Feb 4 about 430 PM ET
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/labor-department-announces-jobs-report-release-date-after-shutdown-delay/ar-AA1VG2Oh

The jobs report was initially supposed to be released this Friday, but the agency’s findings will now be made public next Wednesday, according to an updated calendar on the BLS website ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm ).

Additionally, January’s consumer price index and real earnings reports will now be released next Friday. December’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment data will be released later this week.
. . .
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