"No Convincing Evidence" that black men are turning to Trump.

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2024/06/theres-no-convincing-evidence.html

There are some sources who seem to want to insist that they are seeing a "trending" movement of younger, black men toward support for Trump. Polls "seem" to be indicating this movement. Trump, of course, has announced that he knows it's happening as a result of his recent indictment and now convictions, because this has given him some kind of solidarity with black men. So, insinuating in a manner that couldn't be more disrespectful or insulting toward black men, he claims that their affinity for him is out of sympathy for the fact that they share the experience of being unjustly accused. So, unjustly accused black men are lining up to vote for him.

Except, they're not.

Politically, black men have nothing to gain by switching support to Trump. So why would they?

First of all, I think there's a legitimate question of the accuracy in poll surveys identifying responses coming from "black males." That's difficult to verify, and not an easy demographic for which to get an accurate reading. And in the process of sorting out responses and determining how likely or unlikely they are to vote, I'd really like to see how those factors play out in putting the data together. In the few groupings where black men are included in the data, the shift has been more toward Biden, not away from him.

And what's missing is the really visible evidence, where people identified as leaders and spokespersons among this constituency are actually speaking the rhetoric. That's not happening. In fact, what is happening is just about the exact opposite of what we would need to see to confirm it.