Editorials & Other Articles

Uncle Joe

(60,130 posts) Sun Jun 30, 2024, 10:18 AM Jun 2024

Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 election results says Democrats shouldn't drop Joe Biden

WASHINGTON – Allan Lichtman, the historian who has correctly forecast the results of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections argued on Saturday that replacing President Joe Biden could cost Democrats the 2024 election.

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Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half century, except for the race in 2000, using a series of 13 historical factors or “keys.”

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The system includes four factors based on politics, seven on performance, and two on candidate personality. Lichtman said the incumbent party would need to lose six of those actors, or “keys,” to lose the White House.

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Debate performance, however, is not one of the factors that determines the outcome of an election, he argued. Lichtman pointed to historical examples, including the 1984 election in which former President Ronald Reagan swept 49 states despite poor debate performances and concerns over his age.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/30/lichtman-dems-replace-biden/74260967007/

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Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 election results says Democrats shouldn't drop Joe Biden (Original Post) Uncle Joe Jun 2024 OP

We are not electing TV stars Sinbad43 Jun 2024 #1

Obama had a bad first debate. viva la Jun 2024 #2

"Debate performance is not one of the factors that determines the outcome of an election." lees1975 Jun 2024 #3

Sinbad43

(23 posts)

1. We are not electing TV stars

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sun Jun 30, 2024, 10:29 AM

Jun 2024

We must elect someone we can trust with our lives and the future of this country.

We should never elect a con man, draft dodger, tax evader who drove six companies into bankruptcy.

viva la

(3,775 posts)

2. Obama had a bad first debate.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sun Jun 30, 2024, 10:32 AM

Jun 2024

Or so the media said.

And he won that election pretty handily.

lees1975

(5,943 posts)

3. "Debate performance is not one of the factors that determines the outcome of an election."

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sun Jun 30, 2024, 01:39 PM

Jun 2024

If that were the case, Walter Mondale, who buried Reagan in 1980 in the debate, should have won, Al Gore would have won in 2000, and John Kerry in 2004, Hillary Clinton in 2016. And Obama should have lost in both 2012.

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