Editorials & Other Articles

ificandream

(10,527 posts) Wed Aug 7, 2024, 10:19 AM Aug 2024

Kamala Harris' Chances of Beating Donald Trump In Each Battleground State (Newsweek)

link: https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-battleground-state-chances-donald-trump-1935651

In the weeks since President Biden withdrew from the election race and endorsed Kamala Harris, polls have indicated a surge in voter enthusiasm for the vice president.

(snip)

Trump has not led a national poll for over a week, with Harris leading by between 1 and 5 points in 17 of the 18 most recent surveys (one national survey has them tied).

(snip)

But as with Trump in 2016 and George W. Bush in 2000, a candidate can lose the popular vote nationally and still win the White House. While polling in most of the 50 states strongly indicate which candidate will win there in November, neither candidate currently strongly leads in enough states to win the election.

(snip)

The final analysis: Using current polling numbers, Harris leads in four of the seven most competitive swing states, while Trump leads in three. According to the Electoral College polling map produced by RaceToTheWhiteHouse, if the election were exactly matched current polling in each state, Harris would win the Electoral College with 276 votes to Trump's 262.

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Notice the conflict between the third paragraph I quoted and the last. The third graf sounds like pundit blab while the last one sounds a little more solid. Still, we're a long way off until the election. Hopefully things keep on the rise for Kamala and Tim. Given the positive nature of the campaign, I can't see how they won't.

3 replies

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Kamala Harris' Chances of Beating Donald Trump In Each Battleground State (Newsweek) (Original Post) ificandream Aug 2024 OP

The Electoral College is the worst idea ever passed down to us from the drafters of the Constitution, thucythucy Aug 2024 #1

We need to paint them as the traitors they are, and M$M won't help. bucolic_frolic Aug 2024 #2

One of the problems with polling now is that there aren't enough surveys with Harris in the race yet, instead of Biden. lees1975 Aug 2024 #3

thucythucy

(8,742 posts)

1. The Electoral College is the worst idea ever passed down to us from the drafters of the Constitution,

Reply to ificandream (Original post)

Wed Aug 7, 2024, 10:31 AM

Aug 2024

second only to the incorporation of slavery, which was nullified by the 13th Amendment.

It's state of the art democracy, circa the late 18th century, and getting rid of it would solve a host of our problems.

Personally, I'm so sick of how a couple of thousand "undecided" voters in a handful of "swing states" will determine what our future will be.

bucolic_frolic

(47,001 posts)

2. We need to paint them as the traitors they are, and M$M won't help.

Reply to ificandream (Original post)

Wed Aug 7, 2024, 10:40 AM

Aug 2024

If this were the 1950s Trump would lose by 76 to 19.

lees1975

(5,962 posts)

3. One of the problems with polling now is that there aren't enough surveys with Harris in the race yet, instead of Biden.

Reply to ificandream (Original post)

Wed Aug 7, 2024, 04:35 PM

Aug 2024

It's only been a couple of weeks. There's only two polls that have been taken, both low B's, neither well known, in two battleground states, Arizona and Nevada, and their sample size is tiny. If you look down 538's list, which has the two separated by one point, Harris leads are 5 points or greater in polls with a larger sample size. The smaller the poll, the narrower the margin.

I am not convinced of the reliability of most of these polls. Too many of them are new, not well known, and are owned by corporate entities. Nate Silver identified polls last time that were being paid to puff Trump.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/zybjb

My guess. We'll see.

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