The 'quiet world war' behind the struggles in the Middle East: This is the global map of interests in the Middle East

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Beyond the immediate political calculations, preventing a regional war has been a primary focus for the Biden administration since October 7. The administration has largely given Israel free rein in Gaza while clearly concentrating on the broader threats posed by Iran and its proxies. The U.S. has targeted proxy groups and issued particularly strong warnings to hostile actors in the region, from Hezbollah to the Houthis. Their highly publicized military movements in recent weeks are designed to keep the situation from spiraling out of control – a task that has become much more difficult even in the last two weeks.

In the longer term, the U.S. is working to strengthen its alliances in the Arab world, particularly with Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar. While the Biden administration’s commitment to Israel’s defense remains unwavering, the president and his team have clearly lost patience with the Netanyahu government. They are deeply frustrated that a deal on the table – which could return hostages, lower tensions, and significantly strengthen U.S. and Israeli ties with Saudi Arabia – is repeatedly blocked for the same reasons that led Kissinger to make his famous statement.

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Russia, in its own view, is a global power equal to the U.S. Its foreign policy is driven by this assumption and aims to diminish America’s influence, power and status worldwide, including in the Middle East. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 created unprecedented tension with Washington and many Western democracies, while also tightening Russia’s ties with China, Iran, and North Korea – emphasizing security cooperation among these nations. This Russia-China-Iran-North Korea axis is united by the heavy sanctions imposed on each of them by the U.S. They all aim to reduce American dominance and shift the global order from a U.S.-led unipolar world to a multipolar one.

Russia’s policy toward Israel – against the backdrop of last week’s dramatic escalation and the risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, possibly involving direct Iranian participation – is closely tied to its broader interests in the region, but also to the war in Ukraine. In recent weeks, Russia has increased its involvement in the developments surrounding Israel. It has deepened security cooperation with Tehran and, according to Western sources, has even supplied Iran with advanced electronic warfare systems and air defense systems, and may soon provide them with advanced Su-35 fighter jets. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was in Moscow this week to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin – another sign of Russia’s attempt to assert its influence in the region.

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