A Trump loss could stabilise US politics for a generation
The lesson of 2024 so far is that American populists have no replacement for the former president’s star power

Janan Ganesh

There is such a thing as an unimportant US presidential election. Had Bill Clinton lost to Bob Dole in 1996, or George W Bush to John Kerry the other side of the millennium, there is no reason to believe we would now inhabit a greatly different world. So when I suggest that November 5 2024 is a hinge moment in history, don’t murmur: “Journalists say this every damn time.”

What is the case for this election’s singular importance? If Donald Trump loses, there is an underrated chance that America and its politics will stabilise for a generation. “Stabilise” doesn’t mean “become Luxembourg”. Polarisation will endure. But the received wisdom that Trumpism will outlast Trump — that he is just the face and voice of deeper societal forces, liable to rock the republic for decades — is shakier than it was four years ago.

The lesson of 2024 so far is that American populism will find Trump hideously difficult to replace. In January, Ron DeSantis, who combined the gist of the Trump platform with executive competence, dropped out of the Republican primaries, having not done well enough to even state his case for 2028. In July, JD Vance clinched the title not just of running mate but of heir to the Maga movement. Nothing since then has suggested that he is up to it. Vivek Ramaswamy is another who might wonder if the high summer of his public career is already past.

Others who have a go in the years to come (Tucker Carlson, perhaps) will run into the same problem, which is that Trump has political superpowers almost unique to him. I count three.

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