BTRTN: Can "Catalysts" and "October Surprises" Really Move the Needle Anymore?

"As the calendar turns to October in a presidential election year, it is hard to focus on anything else. The world still turns, horrific events occur, new data emerges, and every new tidbit or tidal wave is assessed not on its own terms, but through the political lens – does it help or hurt the candidates? And in a year where we are more polarized than ever, one candidate is literally despised by half the country, and the stakes are viewed as impossibly high, that tendency is wildly amplified. September 2024 was full of such events, truly terrible tragedies and some awful behavior. Much of it passed by quickly, the shock of each duly reported and processed, moving quickly to consider the political implications, and then dismissed..."

Not even assassination attempts on Trump – now two of them after another failed one in Florida in September – have had any impact. Time was that such an event would create an outpouring of goodwill for the intended victim, especially if they handle the moment well. Think of Reagan (“Honey, I forgot to duck!”) and the sharp increase in his approval rating (+7 points) after the event. Nothing for Trump – our views of him are set in stone. His favorability rating has been stuck in the 40-45% range for eons. The race itself has reached a bit of a stasis point, with Harris up by three points nationally and just ahead by enough in the three northern swing states (which is all she needs to get to 270) to be a nose ahead overall.

But we now have two true potential catalysts – the Middle East and the Jack Smith brief...

https://borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/10/03/btrtn-can-catalysts-and-october-surprises-really-move-the-needle-anymore/