James Carville: Three Reasons I'm Certain Kamala Harris Will Win

There is a palpable anxiety wailing on the winds of American life right now. More than in any other election in my lifetime, I’ve been consistently asked by people of all stripes and creeds: “Can Kamala Harris win this thing? Are we going to be OK?” This sentiment is heard over and over from sweaty Democratic operatives who all too often love to run to the press with their woes.

While I am not one to take part in the political prediction industry — recently ballooned by mysterious crypto investments gambling on a Donald Trump victory — today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain. Here are three reasons:

Mr. Trump is a repeat electoral loser. This time will be no different.

The biggest reason Mr. Trump will lose is that the whole Republican Party has been on a losing streak since Mr. Trump took it over. See 2018: the largest House landslide for Democrats in a midterm election since Watergate. See 2020: He was decisively bucked from the White House by Joe Biden. See 2022: an embarrassment of a midterm for Republicans off the heels of Dobbs. And the Democrats have been performing well in special elections since Trump appointees on the Supreme Court helped take away a basic right of American women. Guess what? Abortion is on the ballot again — for president.

There simply do not seem to be enough voters — even in the battleground states — who turn out at Mr. Trump’s behest anymore when he’s simply preaching to his base. He has not learned from his electoral losses nor done the necessary work to assemble a broad electoral coalition in 2024. Let’s not forget that seven weeks after Nikki Haley dropped out of the Republican primary, she received 158,000 votes in Pennsylvania — and some disaffected Haley voters are currently looking to move to Ms. Harris. Although Ms. Haley has endorsed Mr. Trump, losing even a fraction of those voters leaves Mr. Trump running the final leg of this race with a fundamental fracture of the femur. To add a cherry to the pie, most voters think Mr. Trump is too old to be president, but instead of easing their concerns, he’s spending the final days of the campaign jiving to the Village People and canceling interviews.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/kamala-harris-win-election.html?ogrp=ctr&unlocked_article_code=1.Uk4.V3gi.KrCAKUxixghJ&smid=url-share