Jurisprudence
The Next Trump Administration’s Crackdown on Abortion Will Be Swift, Brutal, and Nationwide

By Mark Joseph Stern
Nov 06, 2024 • 11:53 AM

On Tuesday, many Americans simultaneously voted to protect abortion rights and elect Donald Trump president. But these two desires—for reproductive freedom and another Trump term—are fundamentally contradictory. Trump’s second administration is all but guaranteed to impose major federal restrictions on abortion access. These new limitations will apply nationwide, to states both red and blue, including those that just enshrined a right to protect abortion in their constitutions. It will be harder to access reproductive health care everywhere.

Two and a half years after the fall of Roe v. Wade, even without abortion banned in much of the country, we are likely standing at the highest watermark of abortion access that we will see for years if not decades. The rollback is coming; it will be felt everywhere. And voters who thought they could put Trump back in the White House while preserving or expanding reproductive rights are in for a brutal shock.

Tuesday was a mixed night for abortion initiatives on the ballot, but the overall results reflect a clear rejection of stringent bans. Voters approved initiatives not only in blue Colorado, Maryland, and New York, but also in Montana, Missouri, Arizona, and Nevada—all states where Trump has won or is leading. Pro-choice measures failed in South Dakota and Nebraska, while the latter state enshrined a 12-week ban. Florida’s Amendment 4, which would’ve overturned the state’s six-week ban, fell short of the required 60 percent threshold. But it came close, with 57 percent approval. All told, millions of Americans cast their ballots to protect or restore the right to choose.

These victories for abortion, however, are about to crash into the reality of a ruthlessly anti-choice administration. Although Trump claims he wants to leave abortion to the states, the reality is that abortion policy is set, in substantial part, at the federal level. Even if he rejects a congressional push for a new ban, which is uncertain, his appointees will still have the tools to enact devastating anti-abortion policies. Former and future Trump administration officials have, after all, spent the past few years plotting a scheme to impose sweeping restrictions on reproductive health care through executive action alone. They are now well positioned to set their plan, largely outlined in Project 2025, into action. And we have every reason to believe that Trump will let them do it.

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