As tariffs looming, holiday deals may not return soon

By Andrea Felsted / Bloomberg Opinion

Make the most of this year’s Black Friday bargains. With many retailers carefully controlling their inventories — and the prospect of Trump administration tariffs on the horizon — those savings might not hang around for long.

As we approach the annual holiday bonanza, the market certainly seems awash with special offers. They started back in October, when Amazon.com Inc. kicked off its second Prime Day of the year and retailers including Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. unleashed their own barrage of deals.

But retailers have actually been more restrained in 2024. Many of the current markdowns are the product of pre-negotiated deals with suppliers or strategies designed to move major holiday volume. While there are some blanket reductions covering entire product categories or even the whole store, most don’t appear to be born of panic or inventory gluts. Companies have also been able to take advantage of deflation in setting this year’s doorbusters. Walmart said last week that for non-food items, its prices were more than 4 percent lower in the third quarter than the year earlier.

Although there have been some unwelcome surprises, such as Target’s inventories rising 3 percent in its most recent quarter, few are going into the holidays with a surfeit of stock. Walmart Inc. and Gap Inc. are enjoying the winning combination of increasing sales and shrinking inventory levels. That’s a far cry from two years ago, when most chains were grappling with a mountain of unsold goods.

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