22 Sep: Nice! Ukrainians liquidate top commanders of the Russian Navy - Reporting from Ukraine

Day 576: Sep 22

Today, there is a lot of news from the south.

As promised by the Head of Ukrainian Intelligence, the attacks on the Russian bases in Crimea continued. By conducting these operations, Ukrainians are pursuing 2 goals of strategic significance: undermine supplies to the front and force Russians to relocate their air defense away from the front.

Today, Ukrainians conducted a very complex strike, combining aerial drones, modified anti-ship missiles, and cruise missiles. The main target of today’s strike became the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Interestingly, 2 days ago, we saw how Ukrainians destroyed the secondary headquarters of the Command of the Fleet, so it looks like Ukrainians wanted to make sure that the Russian Command was present in the main building during today’s strike.

There were 2 stages. At first, Ukrainians launched several groups of drones toward Tarkhankut and Sevastopol to overload the air defense and then tried to strike Sevastopol with Neptune missiles. Russians were waiting for and prioritizing the missiles, which is why even though some drones hit their targets, all Neptune missiles were shot down.

But the strike continued, seamlessly flowing into the second stage. The aerial drone strikes intensified even more, and Russians could no longer ignore it. Local residents reported explosions in Feodosia, likely near the oil depots. Explosions were also reported in Chornomorske and Saky, where the drones likely targeted the airfield. Ukrainian drones were also seen close to Simferopol. All of that was done to exhaust the Russian air defense because some Russian systems, like the remaining S-400, could intercept missiles very far from the area where they are stationed.

And it worked, because when Ukrainians launched Storm Shadow missiles, they once again flew over Tarkhankut, without being shot down, implying that air defense was overwhelmed. As a result, Ukrainians successfully hit the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. Russian sources reported that the missile hit precisely the cabinet of the Commander of the Black Sea Navy. Other sources noted that there were at least 6 casualties. Russian forces understood that there were likely more missiles to come, which is why they turned on the siren and deployed smokescreen to conceal the navy. And the Russians were right, because very soon, local residents managed to catch on camera the arrival of 2 more missiles. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainians hit the Navy Headquarters, and as a result, 1 person is missing, who was likely the commander himself. Other military-affiliated sources claimed that there was no one in the building, however, dozens of ambulances suggest otherwise. In response to the strike, Russians rolled out their multiple-launch rocket systems to the shore, however, no one knows why.

Russian military analysts got upset with the performance of the Russian air defense and expressed doubt about the characteristics of the highly-praised S-400 air defense system, as even the remaining 3 systems on the peninsula should have coped with the strike, especially given their integration with other systems on the peninsula. Some Russian analysts have been asserting for already 3 days in a row that Ukrainians are actually using ATACMS missiles that were shipped to Ukraine discreetly. But the abundant photos and videos clearly show that Russians were struck with Strom Shadow and Scalp missiles.

Nonetheless, today it was confirmed that the United States will send Ukraine ATACMS missiles. President Biden reportedly promised President Zelensky to send a small number of such missiles. However, Ukrainians should receive not the 300 km version that can wipe out big targets but a 140 km cluster bomb variant. This is extremely good news because Ukrainians already have HIMARS systems that can be used to launch them, so no additional steps are needed (like training or modification of aircraft that Ukrainians had to introduce to Su-24 to be able to carry Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles). Judging by the dynamics inside the Russian media space, Russians are already bracing for the new wave of strikes in the deep rear.