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18 percent of ballots have been returned.... only
I hope people aren't sitting this out. Some polls have Elder very close, this poll tracker tells a different story. I don't know what to believe at this point.
Blasting past 4 million ballots cast.
We have looked a lot at the partisanship of the ballots returned, but what’s most striking now is the gulf in turnout based on age.
In total, a third of Seniors have voted. Those ballots are coming in at 55% Dem, 28% Rep, and 17% Independent/Other.
Among 18-34, we are still in single-digits, at just 9% turnout. Those voters are 56% Dem, only 15% Rep, and 29% Independent/Other.
This 18-34 age group, with more than 6-million voters (none of whom was eligible to vote in the 2003 recall) is the largest age grouping on the file. Yet they are the lowest turnout, by a lot. We can see on the second page of the tracker that turnout by seniors is waning, but they are still 41% of the votes cast even though they are just 23% of registered voters.
This segment of young voters, with that 40-point Democratic advantage, is going to clearly be the most critical parts of the electorate for the No side to turnout in these last two weeks.
To see it all, get the PDF here: https://www.dropbox.com/t/mswiExeEQyaPkd0n
If you’re forwarding this to others, they can subscribe to receive these morning updates here: https://www.politicaldata.com/2021-election-tracker-email-signup/
Thanks,
Paul
We have looked a lot at the partisanship of the ballots returned, but what’s most striking now is the gulf in turnout based on age.
In total, a third of Seniors have voted. Those ballots are coming in at 55% Dem, 28% Rep, and 17% Independent/Other.
Among 18-34, we are still in single-digits, at just 9% turnout. Those voters are 56% Dem, only 15% Rep, and 29% Independent/Other.
This 18-34 age group, with more than 6-million voters (none of whom was eligible to vote in the 2003 recall) is the largest age grouping on the file. Yet they are the lowest turnout, by a lot. We can see on the second page of the tracker that turnout by seniors is waning, but they are still 41% of the votes cast even though they are just 23% of registered voters.
This segment of young voters, with that 40-point Democratic advantage, is going to clearly be the most critical parts of the electorate for the No side to turnout in these last two weeks.
To see it all, get the PDF here: https://www.dropbox.com/t/mswiExeEQyaPkd0n
If you’re forwarding this to others, they can subscribe to receive these morning updates here: https://www.politicaldata.com/2021-election-tracker-email-signup/
Thanks,
Paul
14 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
it's safe, I've been looking there daily.
Paul Mitchell is the polster's name, it's not the Hair Product guy
He's an excellent communicator & makes so many good points.
https://democraticunderground.com/1017678169
