Breaking 5 million ballots cast

The first big wave has abated slightly, but not before we break the 5-million barrier. What will be interesting is to see how these numbers shift after this weekend when many counties are opening in-person voting opportunities. This second avenue of returns may alter the composition of the electorate a bit.

One thing we always look at in these elections is how much the early and late voting patterns are consistent with prior voting behavior. Voting, of course, is very habitual. And we see patterns set in with some voters always voting early by mail, some wanting to walk their ballot in and drop it off, and a decreasing number old-schooling it by voting-person on Election Day using a machine.

Looking at the data, we are at 23% turnout, but we are 55% among voters who usually vote early, and 50% turnout among voters who cast their ballots early in the 2020 General.

Democrats who have historically voted early are at 59% turnout, and even those who usually vote late are at 35% turnout, signaling this switch to more early voting for Democrats, as we saw in 2020.

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