How the delta surge changed the death divide between California's Republican and Democratic areas

San Francisco Chronicle / 9-10-21

SNIP

Before June 21, we found, the counties with the smallest share of Trump voters actually had a higher death rate than the counties with more Trump voters. The overall death rate for residents in these counties was 170 per 100,000 residents. For the in-between counties, the death rate was 156 per 100,000; for the most Trump-voting counties, the death rate was 124 per 100,000.*

After vaccinations became widely available, however, the calculus changed. The death rate for counties with the highest Trump share since June 21 is 30% higher than for the counties with middling or lower Trump share.

“The vaccines made a big difference, and they probably made a big difference for Republicans and Democrats,” she said. “But because vaccine uptake was higher (in Democratic counties), the likely impact we saw of the vaccine on death rates was greater.”

To underscore this point, we found that counties with the greatest Trump share are just 41% fully vaccinated, whereas counties with the smallest Trump share are over 63% fully vaccinated — a gap of over 20 percentage points.

(paywall) https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/Are-politics-influencing-COVID-19-death-rates-16447486.php

Note: Data analysis conducted by the SF Chronicle. Parallels what's being reported around the country, so no big surprise really. But is it enough to make a difference in CA's next congressional elections, especially in the tight districts? Stay tuned.

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* (from the link): pre-vaccine discrepancies were likely rooted in demographic differences between Republican and Democratic counties. For instance, Democratic counties tend to have greater numbers of Black and Latino people, who have died disproportionately from COVID-19 throughout the pandemic.