El Nino just ramped up. What does it mean for California weather?

San Francisco Chronicle / 9-14-23

On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center extended its El Niño advisory for a fourth straight month. The agency forecasts greater than 95% odds that El Niño conditions continue through March and a 71% chance of a “strong” El Niño.

The atmospheric pattern, synonymous with warmer global temperatures and intense regional rainfall, is connected to ocean temperatures.

Eastern equatorial Pacific ocean temperatures are currently 1.6 degrees Celsius above normal. If this part of the sea remains at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal through the end of October, an official El Niño year will be declared.

Outside the equatorial region, El Niño has already contributed to 2023’s record-breaking global temperatures. Come the wintertime, El Niño is expected to alter weather patterns and could enhance precipitation across the southern U.S.

LINK (paywall): https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/california-el-nino-18360235.php

Highlights:

• Most El Niño events result in above-normal winter precipitation in Southern California with weaker results in Northern California, though ...

• Each El Niño is different, altering the predictability of California weather impacts

• Current December through February forecast is for equal chances of above- and below-normal precipitation across California.

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I remember one El Niño -- decades ago? -- that hammered San Francisco and The Bay Area.