Heavy storms and strong winds possible in D.C. area on Christmas Eve

before temperatures plummet.
Snow showers or flurries are possible on Christmas Day.

Wild weather awaits the Washington area on Christmas Eve as a powerful Arctic cold front roars into the region. Before the front arrives, temperatures will spike to near 60 degrees. When the front closes in, heavy rain and possible thunderstorms may unleash damaging winds and flooding.

Then, in the front’s wake, winds howl and temperatures crash to near freezing by Christmas morning. A few snow flurries could fly on Christmas Day.

The first half of the day be nice and mild albeit on the breezy side. Gusty winds from the south will quickly push temperatures toward 60 degrees.

During the afternoon, shower chances increase from southwest to northeast. Showers and even some embedded thunderstorms could develop during the late afternoon and evening. The rain could be quite heavy.

The National Weather Service says the region has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall that could result in flash flooding. Here are amounts predicted by different forecast models:

European: 1.1 inches
American: 1.2 inches
Canadian: 1.5 inches
NAM: 1.3 inches
Heavier amounts, closer to two inches, may fall in the mountains.

If thunderstorms are embedded inside the waves of heavy showers moving through the region, they may produce a few damaging wind gusts. The Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has placed the Southern Maryland in a marginal risk zone for severe thunderstorms.

“A tornado cannot be ruled out,” wrote the Weather Service’s forecast office in Sterling, Va.

Most rain should end a little after midnight or during the predawn hours on Christmas. Out toward the mountains, the rain may end briefly as snow but the chance of wintry weather along the Interstate 95 corridor is slim.

“Alas snow lovers, the models are now bringing the cold air near the surface in too slowly to support much in the way of snow,” wrote Wes Junker, Capital Weather Gang’s winter weather expert. “We can’t completely rule out a few flakes toward the end of the rainfall event but none of the models are now supporting any accumulation.”

A period of very strong winds, gusting over 45 or even 50 mph, is possible when the front comes through late on Christmas Eve or very early Christmas morning.

Temperatures plunge with chance of flurries on Christmas Day
The front should push east of Washington between around 10 p.m. Christmas Eve and 3 a.m. Christmas morning. Temperatures will fall sharply in the front’s wake. By sunrise on Christmas Day, most spots should be near or below freezing.

Especially toward the mountains, there is some possibility of a flash freeze, which would cause wet untreated surfaces to ice over. But, in the immediate D.C. area, strong winds behind the front should mostly dry things out before temperatures fall below freezing.

During the day Friday, temperatures are unlikely to rise much if at all as gusty winds from the northwest draw in frigid air. Wind chills will be in the teens and 20s.

Occasional festive snow flurries are possible on Christmas Day as a high-altitude weather disturbance zips through the region.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/12/22/dc-christmas-eve-weather-storms/?