We predict December in the Washington region will be warmer and drier than normal.

After a chilly November, the final month of 2021 should offer more frequent mild spells.

With snow flurries fluttering about at the end of a colder-than-normal November, one might wonder if wintry weather is set to continue and even tighten its grip in the coming weeks. However, the current weather pattern is evolving into a milder one that favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for 2021′s final month.

By Thursday, temperatures are forecast to surge into the 60s for the first time in two weeks. Pulses of cooler weather late this weekend and late next week offer only bite-size bits of winter between prevailing mild periods. That may be the story of the month — a roller-coaster ride temperature-wise, but more ups than downs.

For December overall, we favor temperatures to run 1 to 3 degrees warmer than the 30-year normal of 41.7 degrees, with precipitation running 0.5 to 2 inches drier than the 30-year normal of 3.41 inches. And, yes, snowfall should also be below the normal of 1.7 inches, probably between a trace and one inch.

Note that our winter outlook issued in early November called for a colder-than-normal December. But the evolving weather pattern and latest data now support a milder outlook.

Computer models agree on a mild and dry December
Three different long-range models are in lockstep agreement that December will be milder than average, not only across the Washington region but also in most of the Lower 48 states. Check out their latest simulations for predicted temperature differences from normal over the next four weeks:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/11/30/washington-december-outlook-2021/?

((Forecast HI here in southern MD for Thursday = 65!!!))