CAPITAL WEATHER GANG

How harsh will winter be? Six organizations issue forecasts.

A look at forecasts from NOAA, AccuWeather, Weather.com and others

By Zach Rosenthal
October 13, 2022 at 10:42 a.m. EDT

While it is still several weeks until the official start of winter on Dec. 21, several organizations are already unveiling their nationwide Winter 2022-2023 forecasts.

Note that even the most scientifically advanced seasonal outlooks cannot pinpoint what the weather will be in a particular place at a particular time this far in advance. But, with varying levels of success, they can paint a broad picture of how hot or cold or wet or dry different parts of the country may be compared to average.

[Winter’s coming: Here’s what to know about long-range weather outlooks]

Among the winter outlooks issued by meteorologists so far, most agree that the southern United States will be drier and warmer than normal, with the best chance of colder and stormier-than-normal conditions in the northern tier, Midwest and Ohio Valley. Such projections reflect typical conditions that develop during La Niña events, which are associated with an episodic cooling of ocean waters in the tropical Pacific. This year, La Niña is forecast to prevail for a third straight winter.

Whether you are a fan of snow, here is the latest roundup of what meteorologists are saying about the weather in the coming months. For entertainment purposes, we also summarize the outlooks from the Farmers’ Almanac and its rival, the Old Farmer’s almanac — but meteorologists put little stock in those predictions.

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