When will cherry blossoms hit peak bloom? We predict late March.

Even with early blooming flowers in D.C., anticipated cooler weather should put the blossoms’ bloom cycle on hold

By Jason Samenow

Early blooming flowers are emerging all around Washington, D.C., thanks to a historically mild January and February. One might think the famed Yoshino cherry blossoms at the Tidal Basin would soon follow — but an abrupt change in the weather pattern by the second week of March may well put their bloom cycle on hold.

Because of the prospect of a chilly March in the D.C. area — slowing the onset of spring — we’re anticipating peak bloom will take place between March 25 and 29. That’s just a few days earlier than normal.

The cooler weather and more gradual progression into spring is good news for the blossoms. If it remained abnormally warm through the first half of March, the blossom buds could flower prematurely, leaving them vulnerable to freezing temperatures that are not uncommon in the middle of the month. This happened in 2017 when the buds advanced to the fifth stage out of six and were badly damaged by snow and temperatures that plunged into the 20s.

Because of our warming climate, the cherry trees are flowering earlier than they used to, potentially making them more susceptible to late freezes. Bloom data dates to 1921 and the average peak has advanced about five days, from April 4 to March 31. The earliest peak bloom on record occurred on March 15, 1990, while April 18, 1958, marks the latest peak. Last year, peak bloom occurred on March 21.'>>>

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/02/28/cherry-blossom-peak-bloom-forecast-2023/?