Florida

Roland99

(53,345 posts) Fri Oct 23, 2020, 09:04 AM Oct 2020

Florida - Early Voting Stats - Oct 22-23

Oct 22

#Election2020 #Florida #EarlyVote #MailInBallots

Summary of votes submitted in FL as of 10/22 8:27am

Dems w/a COMMANDING lead in Vote-by-Mail (+550k)
Reps w/a small lead in-person early voting (+91k)

applied a 50/40 split (Rep/Dem) for no party affiliation (was 47/43 in 2016)

I'm being more pessimistic on the split for no party affiliation voters than we saw in 2016. Even with that slightly pessimistic viewpoint, Dems could conceivably have a sizeable lead as of this morning of ~381,000 votes...so far. That's a lot of ground to makeup from in-person voting from republicans

In 2016, a total of 9,618,915 were cast. 2,758,617 were vote-by-mail and election day numbers were close to that at 2,959,085. Total early in-person votes in 2016 were 3,876,753 and about 24k provisional ballots.

FL has already blown past vote-by-mail returns this year with about 3,200,000

SOOO...ESTIMATED current split between Biden/trump is 52.9/44.0 (ignoring other candidates)!

19 replies

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Highlight:

Florida - Early Voting Stats - Oct 22-23 (Original Post) Roland99 Oct 2020 OP

Oct 23 Roland99 Oct 2020 #1

Oct 24 - Reps gain another 50k from previous day. Roland99 Oct 2020 #7

Oct 25 - Reps gained another 31k Roland99 Oct 2020 #8

Oct 26 update - Growth in Rep votes slowing Roland99 Oct 2020 #11

Oct 27 update - big jump for Rep in-person votes yesterday Roland99 Oct 2020 #12

Oct 28 update - another sizeable jump for Rep in-person votes yesterday Roland99 Oct 2020 #13

October 29 - Number of votes has slowed but Dem "lead" dissipating Roland99 Oct 2020 #14

October 30 - ugh Roland99 Oct 2020 #15

Happy Halloween! Oct 31 update Roland99 Oct 2020 #16

I'll post an update tomorrow Roland99 Nov 2020 #17

Nov 1 update Roland99 Nov 2020 #18

***Nov 2 update*** Roland99 Nov 2020 #19

You are so good- I love your analysis kansasobama Oct 2020 #2

thanks. I need to get back onto the covid tracking again, too. Roland99 Oct 2020 #4

K&R Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #3

For weeks I've been saying the repukes will not be able to surpass in 1 day what we did over weeks Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #5

I wish those 1,111,612 democrat's mail in ballots not yet mailedwould get themselves to the mail box BComplex Oct 2020 #6

Down to about 927,000 as of Sunday Awsi Dooger Oct 2020 #9

Oh my!! Look at these breakdowns!! Roland99 Oct 2020 #10

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

1. Oct 23

Reply to Roland99 (Original post)

Fri Oct 23, 2020, 09:05 AM

Oct 2020

#Election2020 #Florida #EarlyVote #MailInBallots
Summary of votes submitted in FL as of 10/23 8:31am

Dems lead shrinks by about 46k votes

applied a Dem-pessimistic 50/40 split (Rep/Dem) for no party affiliation
(was 47/43 Rep to Dem in 2016)

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

7. Oct 24 - Reps gain another 50k from previous day.

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 03:23 PM

Oct 2020

October 24 update

About another 50k vote increase for Reps from previous day (same as increase from Oct 22->23)

Dems still hold an *apparent* 283k vote lead

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

8. Oct 25 - Reps gained another 31k

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 09:06 AM

Oct 2020

Another increase for Reps from previous day but not as big (32k)

Dems still hold an *apparent* 251k vote lead

FL now at 5.7 million votes cast. All of 2016 early voting total was 6.6 million

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

11. Oct 26 update - Growth in Rep votes slowing

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 07:46 AM

Oct 2020

October 26 update

Another increase for Reps from previous day but growth slowing even more (16k)

Dems still hold an *apparent* 235k vote lead using a pessimistic splits for Independents

FL now over 6 million votes cast.

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

12. Oct 27 update - big jump for Rep in-person votes yesterday

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #11)

Tue Oct 27, 2020, 08:02 AM

Oct 2020

Big increase for Reps from previous day for in-person voting

Dems still hold an *apparent* 174k vote lead using a pessimistic splits for Ind (50% Rep/40% Dem)

FL at ~6.4 million votes cast

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

13. Oct 28 update - another sizeable jump for Rep in-person votes yesterday

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #12)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 07:54 AM

Oct 2020

Another increase for Reps from previous day for in-person voting

Dems still hold *apparent* 106k vote lead using pessimistic splits for Ind (50% Rep/40% Dem).
190k lead w/2016 split

Almost 7 Million votes cast

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

14. October 29 - Number of votes has slowed but Dem "lead" dissipating

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #13)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 08:04 AM

Oct 2020

Another increase for Reps from previous day for in-person voting

Dems still hold *apparent* 56k vote lead using pessimistic splits for Ind (50% Rep/40% Dem). 146k lead w/2016 split

Over 7 Million votes cast

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

15. October 30 - ugh

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #14)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 09:30 AM

Oct 2020

Using my pessimistic split, showing a virtual tie
Using 2016 split, Dems with an apparent 98k vote lead

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

16. Happy Halloween! Oct 31 update

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #15)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 08:31 AM

Oct 2020

Another increase for Reps from previous day for in-person voting. Still tightening

46k lead w/2016 split
116k lead w/49/49 split (leaving 2% for other candidates)

8.3 Million ballots cast

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

17. I'll post an update tomorrow

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #16)

Sun Nov 1, 2020, 06:41 PM

Nov 2020

My Twitter acct got a 7-day suspension today and I haven’t been on my computer today

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

18. Nov 1 update

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #16)

Mon Nov 2, 2020, 07:24 AM

Nov 2020

20k or 94k Dem lead (24k using 2016 split, 94k using even split from independents)

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

19. ***Nov 2 update***

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #18)

Mon Nov 2, 2020, 09:08 AM

Nov 2020

Dems increased ballots by 10k (first daily increase in a long time!)

2016 split (47/43) - Dems lead now by 30k!
49/49/2 split - Dems lead by 108k!

kansasobama

(1,493 posts)

2. You are so good- I love your analysis

Reply to Roland99 (Original post)

Fri Oct 23, 2020, 09:12 AM

Oct 2020

I look forward to it every day.

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

4. thanks. I need to get back onto the covid tracking again, too.

Reply to kansasobama (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 23, 2020, 09:25 AM

Oct 2020

I took a break from that for a while.

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)

3. K&R

Reply to Roland99 (Original post)

Fri Oct 23, 2020, 09:16 AM

Oct 2020

Come On Florida! We need a big win for the Democrats.

Thekaspervote

(34,651 posts)

5. For weeks I've been saying the repukes will not be able to surpass in 1 day what we did over weeks

Reply to Roland99 (Original post)

Fri Oct 23, 2020, 09:57 AM

Oct 2020

And I have been totally and utterly shot down...guess we’ll see

BComplex

(9,078 posts)

6. I wish those 1,111,612 democrat's mail in ballots not yet mailedwould get themselves to the mail box

Reply to Roland99 (Original post)

Fri Oct 23, 2020, 10:40 AM

Oct 2020

Just sayin'!

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

9. Down to about 927,000 as of Sunday

Reply to BComplex (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 02:15 PM

Oct 2020

I think Florida looks okay. Miami-Dade today slightly surpassed Broward and Palm Beach in terms of percentage of turnout among registered voters, even though the mail return rate remains lower in Miami-Dade.

My rooting interest is getting the non-affiliated numbers as high as possible. That group will be a grind in our favor. We were never going to defeat Trump based on turnout or crossover votes. It has to be swing independents.

Roland99

(53,345 posts)

10. Oh my!! Look at these breakdowns!!

Reply to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:52 PM

Oct 2020

If u look at the cross tabs 4 the @YouGov polls from today, you'll find that of those who've already voted by party breakdown this is what you'll see (%):
NC:
Dem:B 100-0
Rep:T 89-8
Ind:B 57-34
GA:
Dem:B 99-0
Rep:T 94-6
Ind:B 54-42
FL:
Dem:B 99-1
Rep:T 87-12
Ind:B 56-40

That’s more than the inverse for Ind that I’m using which would mean a much higher lead for Biden to-date. I’m sticking with my pessimistic view just to keep me in a fighting mood for now

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