Lucky is the loser who, when faced with defeat, can simply change the rules.

If Amendment 4 passes this November, the Florida Constitution will be amended to ensure that women and their health care providers, not lawmakers and their think tanks, will determine whether abortion is appropriate.

Gaming the system

Winning over hearts and minds to defeat the amendment was always going to be a challenge, but why do the hard work when you can game the system?

At the ballot box, voters will see both the amendment and a brief explanation of its likely financial impact on state and local budgets. Assembled by a team of sober-minded experts in state government, it’s ordinarily routine.

The panel’s first bottom-line estimate could be summed up as “we’re not sure.”

But there’s a new estimate now, which will appear on your ballot barring lawsuits, that reads: “The proposed amendment would result in significantly more abortions and fewer live births per year in Florida. The increase in abortions could be even greater if the amendment invalidates laws requiring parental consent before minors undergo abortions and those ensuring only licensed physicians perform abortions. There is also uncertainty about whether the amendment will require the state to subsidize abortions with public funds. Litigation to resolve those and other uncertainties will result in additional costs to the state government and state courts that will negatively impact the state budget. An increase in abortions may negatively affect the growth of state and local revenues over time. Because the fiscal impact of increased abortions on state and local revenues and costs cannot be estimated with precision, the total impact of the proposed amendment is indeterminate.”

What changed is that Tallahassee put its thumb on the scale.