Florida

steve2470

(37,461 posts) Sat Mar 21, 2020, 01:55 PM Mar 2020

Are Central Florida hospitals ready for coronavirus surge? Special Report

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-health-coronavirus-orlando-hospital-preparedness-20200321-prig65gjxfcednyzylrlswdjfm-story.html

CEOs of the major health systems in Orlando say they have been preparing for a potential surge of coronavirus patients. But despite their best efforts, they could still be overwhelmed.

“Our teams are mapping out, stack by stack, what level of volume and what level of support we might need. Space is one issue. Equipment is the next issue. And then critical care providers is the third issue, and our plans are dealing with all of them,” said Daryl Tol, president and CEO of AdventHealth.

In the best-case scenario, if Central Floridians practice social distancing, researchers predict that about 20% of the population could be infected over 18 months. That is about 600,000 Central Floridians, according to projections by Harvard Global Health Institute.

About 130,000 of those who contract the disease will need hospitalization and 29,000 of that segment will need intensive care. In this scenario, Central Florida hospitals would need about 30% more hospital beds and 50% more ICU beds than they currently have.

3 replies

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Are Central Florida hospitals ready for coronavirus surge? Special Report (Original Post) steve2470 Mar 2020 OP

Paywall site for me. lpbk2713 Mar 2020 #1

Translation- we're expecting a catastrophe. hay rick Mar 2020 #2

It was 56% in CA. BigmanPigman Mar 2020 #3

lpbk2713

(43,197 posts)

1. Paywall site for me.

Reply to steve2470 (Original post)

Sat Mar 21, 2020, 01:57 PM

Mar 2020

I get the gist of it though.

hay rick

(8,167 posts)

2. Translation- we're expecting a catastrophe.

Reply to steve2470 (Original post)

Sat Mar 21, 2020, 06:40 PM

Mar 2020

Last edited Sat Mar 21, 2020, 11:54 PM - Edit history (1)

The governor of California is expecting 64% of their population to get COVID-19. Angela Merkel suggested 70% of Germans could eventually get the disease. A 20% infection total seems extraordinarily optimistic. If the 18-month total was 40% of the population, still wildly optimistic in terms of California or German projections, Central Florida hospitals would need to treat 58,000 ICU patients- double the number of the "optimistic" scenario in which they were already 50% short of the needed ICU beds.

BigmanPigman

(52,153 posts)

3. It was 56% in CA.

Reply to hay rick (Reply #2)

Sun Mar 22, 2020, 02:25 AM

Mar 2020

64% is a revised, realistic idea. The 18 month scenario is what I am realistically looking at and preparing for mentally. We will have waves of infection until everyone has been infected and are immune or there is a vaccine.......

The Spanish Flu came in like a hurricane and nailed everyone it could. It came and left fairly quickly (a few weeks was common). This is different. That flu had people showing severe symptoms within 72 hours of exposure. There was WWI which spread it but we have global travelers now and they are spreading it without showing symptoms. This is the problem we face.

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