...I generally avoid drawing big conclusions from low-turnout special election races. Republicans heavily outspent Democrats on direct mail and television and radio advertising, and appear to have had a strong ground game during this unusually brief campaign. Dickey’s winning margin was larger than Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ in her 2018 general election win against Stewart, but smaller than Donald Trump’s 21-point advantage over Joe Biden in the 2020 general election.

For now, I want to highlight what I see as the most alarming trend for Iowa Democrats: their candidates’ declining vote share in mid-sized counties, containing cities with populations between 20,000 and 30,000.

...

Over the past decade, Democrats lost more Iowa House or Senate races in districts containing mid-sized cities (Muscatine, Fort Dodge, Burlington, Marshalltown, Clinton, Newton). Most recently, Democratic incumbents lost 2020 state House races in districts that include Ottumwa and Keokuk.

I don’t mean to discount the importance of improving Democratic performance in Iowa’s rural areas. Running up the score in Davis and Van Buren counties gave Dickey a cushion that could have absorbed a modest advantage for Stewart in Wapello.

As it turned out, he didn’t need that cushion, because the Ottumwa area can no longer be considered friendly territory for Democrats.

I don’t have the solution, but the Iowa Democratic Party’s new leadership team needs to address the erosion of support in counties like Wapello to have any hope of winning statewide elections in 2022.

https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2021/01/27/adrian-dickeys-win-highlights-iowa-democrats-trouble-in-mid-sized-counties/