Iowa
Related: About this forum538 has Hillary losing IA.
It's pretty close but still.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/
Let's hope the post convention bump is significant. GOTV!!!
emulatorloo
(45,551 posts)progressoid
(50,734 posts)I went there looking for data on a poll a RWer sent to me.
http://96.127.53.23/election/
Apparently Hannity is touting this one.
I'm too tired to deal with it now.
emulatorloo
(45,551 posts)xocet
(3,928 posts)However, may your faith be rewarded.
emulatorloo
(45,551 posts)Only exception in recent years was Bush in 2004, and that was an anomaly.
As to your counter examples, Iowa's a purple state. To generalize a little, As you may know Dems don't always come out to vote in midterms but they are generally very motivated to come out for Presidential ones.
Cheers and best regards.
xocet
(3,928 posts)That would be a great way to start rolling back Republican gains in the House and in the Senate.
Have a nice evening.
still_one
(96,436 posts)I watched on non-commercial TV. Cannot stand the bubble heads who don't know sqwat
elleng
(135,875 posts)emulatorloo
(45,551 posts)rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)Means nothing right now. Let this week finish.
Seriously, back to worrying about virtually tied state polls tonight?
progressoid
(50,734 posts)That we've sunk to this level is depressing
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)There will be a bounce.
Iowa has been tight all along. We don't need it if we win Virginia and Florida. And we will.
Don't worry. Vote.
still_one
(96,436 posts)rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)Organize.
still_one
(96,436 posts)rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)You can't change them; they are meaningless individually; trends matter more than momentary results; the margins of error is such that either a lead or a deficit needs to be tempered by the realization that it could be off 3-4 points in either direction for either or both candidates; state polls are both more variable and generally lower in quality and accuracy and less frequent; all likely voter models are guesses and predictions; and it's far too early for polls to be meaningfully predictive.
We know Trump can win. We know it's close. That's all that we need to know to push harder. There will be surprises and scares and trash talk and bad polls and good ones.
Watch next week's national polls from the major pollsters. If this convention doesn't earn a substantial bounce for Hillary Ill be surprised.
Trump is his own worst enemy. Remember there's still debates to come and he is completely overmatched by Hillary.
still_one
(96,436 posts)still_one
(96,436 posts)MFM008
(19,998 posts)I want to see polls next week.
Onyrleft
(344 posts)Unless Hillary shows up to the debates on PCP, that should be the end of Drumpf.