2018 Congressional Elections: Predictions of Montgomery Blair HS, Silver Spring MD

Daily Kos, Oct. 26. As a high school student, it’s amazing to think that I’ve contributed to something that professionals such as FiveThirtyEight and CrossTab are currently doing. For the past two months, math teacher David Stein has led seniors at Montgomery Blair High School in creating a model that predicts the results of the 2018 congressional elections.



This model (which we named the Overall Results of an Analytical Consideration of the Looming Elections a.k.a. ORACLE of Blair) was developed by a group of around 70 high school seniors. Apart from the youth and enthusiasm that went into making it, the advantage our model has over professionally developed models is transparency.

Unlike professionals, we need not have any secrets in regards to how our predictions are generated. In fact, the sections that follow attempt to detail exactly how we come up with all of the numbers involved in our model. As an individual, this was a great experience where we got to apply theory learned in statistics to a larger project and was generally a joy to work on. I hope that more high schools see the value in projects like these.

>As of this post’s publication there is a 77.39% chance that Democrats will win the house as a result of this election. The model is run daily up until election day with the site updating to the new predictions. We also publish blog posts on the site on certain aspects of this election such as how we dealt with Pennsylvania’s redistricting and how gender plays a role in prediction results.

If you want to see how your own district is predicted, how we made our predictions, or are just interested in politics you can check our site out here: polistat.mbhs.edu - Read More...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/26/1807360/-Montgomery-Blair-High-School-Predicts-Congressional-Elections?utm_campaign=spotlight