Why Massachusetts's Governorship Is The Likeliest To Flip In 2022

Massachusetts has an opening in its corner office. Republican Gov. Charlie Baker is retiring, and in a state with no shortage of ambitious politicians, you’d expect there to be a Central Artery-worthy traffic jam to take his place. But instead, more than two months before Election Day, it’s already safe for Democratic Attorney General Maura Healey to start picking out new drapes.

So how did the race to govern the nation’s 15th largest state, the birthplace of the American Revolution, the hub of New England (if not the universe) — and, if you couldn’t already tell, my home state — get so uncompetitive?

It wasn’t always. A year ago, it looked like Bay Staters were in for not one, but two competitive gubernatorial primaries. Harvard professor Danielle Allen, state Sen. Sonia Chang-Díaz and former state Sen. Ben Downing were all running on the Democratic side, while former state Rep. Geoff Diehl was challenging Baker in the Republican primary.

Normally, a primary challenge to a sitting governor would be a fool’s errand, but Baker is no favorite of the GOP base. Part of a long-running tradition of moderate, even liberal, Republican governors in the Northeast, Baker has worked with the Democratic legislature to fight climate change and protect abortion rights, and he even came out in favor of impeaching former President Donald Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/massachusetts-governor-2022/